The Real-Time Impact of the War on Russian Imports: A Synthetic Control Method Approach

IF 2.2 3区 社会学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Michele Mancini, Francesco Paolo Conteduca, Alessandro Borin
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Abstract

In response to the invasion of Ukraine, the EU and most other advanced economies imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, intending to harm its production capabilities and hinder its economic activities by restricting its access to international trade and financial markets. This paper develops an empirical framework based on the synthetic control method to assess the impact of the war and the following sanctions on bilateral and sectoral exports to Russia almost in real time. The war and the following sanctions reduced aggregate exports to Russia by a third between March and December 2022, with the effects being stronger for sanctioning countries than for non-sanctioning ones, albeit with substantial country-level heterogeneity within each group. Exports to Russia in high-tech sectors – relatively more targeted by trade sanctions – have been disproportionately affected.
战争对俄罗斯进口的实时影响:合成控制法
作为对乌克兰入侵的回应,欧盟和大多数其他发达经济体对俄罗斯实施了广泛的制裁,意在通过限制其进入国际贸易和金融市场来损害其生产能力并阻碍其经济活动。本文建立了一个基于合成控制法的实证框架,几乎实时地评估了战争和随后的制裁对双边和部门对俄出口的影响。在 2022 年 3 月至 12 月期间,战争和随后的制裁使对俄罗斯的出口总额减少了三分之一,制裁国受到的影响比非制裁国更大,尽管在每组国家中存在很大的国家级异质性。高科技行业--相对而言更容易成为贸易制裁的目标--对俄罗斯的出口受到了不成比例的影响。
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来源期刊
World Trade Review
World Trade Review Multiple-
CiteScore
2.30
自引率
7.70%
发文量
41
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