Joyjit Mandal , Chandrani Chatterjee , Saurabh Das
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Increasing lightning fatalities over India is a concerning subject. Especially, it is pretty crucial over North-Eastern part of the country where lightning is extremely frequent. Given the complex nature of the problem, machine learning can be an excellent option in such forecasting scenarios. However, such dynamic processes seek proper transparency of the model. The current work attempts to devise a model for short range prediction (one month ahead) of lightning density based on primary atmospheric parameters from satellite data with a lead time of one month over North –Eastern and Eastern part of the country. Random Forest regression seems to outperform other models explored, with a R2 of 0.86 and an MAE of 0.0071. The interpretation of the model output using SHAP index reveals that 2 m temperature at previous two months and CAPE and K-index at previous month has a positive impact on the output of the model whereas, instantaneous surface heat flux of previous month and two month prior K-index has an inhibiting effect on model's output. The use of machine learning techniques for atmospheric predictions without the shed of the black box can be of importance to the scientific community. Such studies especially over lightning prone tropical regions can be crucial in meteorological forecasting applications.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (JASTP) is an international journal concerned with the inter-disciplinary science of the Earth''s atmospheric and space environment, especially the highly varied and highly variable physical phenomena that occur in this natural laboratory and the processes that couple them.
The journal covers the physical processes operating in the troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere, ionosphere, magnetosphere, the Sun, interplanetary medium, and heliosphere. Phenomena occurring in other "spheres", solar influences on climate, and supporting laboratory measurements are also considered. The journal deals especially with the coupling between the different regions.
Solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and other energetic events on the Sun create interesting and important perturbations in the near-Earth space environment. The physics of such "space weather" is central to the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics and the journal welcomes papers that lead in the direction of a predictive understanding of the coupled system. Regarding the upper atmosphere, the subjects of aeronomy, geomagnetism and geoelectricity, auroral phenomena, radio wave propagation, and plasma instabilities, are examples within the broad field of solar-terrestrial physics which emphasise the energy exchange between the solar wind, the magnetospheric and ionospheric plasmas, and the neutral gas. In the lower atmosphere, topics covered range from mesoscale to global scale dynamics, to atmospheric electricity, lightning and its effects, and to anthropogenic changes.