A joinpoint analysis examining trends in firearm injuries at six us trauma centers from 2016 to 2022.

Abstract

Background: There is an epidemic of firearm injuries in the United States since the mid-2000s. Thus, we sought to examine whether hospitalization from firearm injuries have increased over time, and to examine temporal changes in patient demographics, firearm injury intent, and injury severity.

Methods: This was a multicenter, retrospective, observational cohort study of patients hospitalized with a traumatic injury to six US level I trauma centers between 1/1/2016 and 6/30/2022. ICD-10-CM cause codes were used to identify and describe firearm injuries. Temporal trends were compared for demographics (age, sex, race, insured status), intent (assault, unintentional, self-harm, legal intervention, and undetermined), and severity (death, ICU admission, severe injury (injury severity score ≥ 16), receipt of blood transfusion, mechanical ventilation, and hospital and ICU LOS (days). Temporal trends were examined over 13 six-month intervals (H1, January-June; H2, July-December) using joinpoint regression and reported as semi-annual percent change (SPC); significance was p < 0.05.

Results: Firearm injuries accounted for 2.6% (1908 of 72,474) of trauma hospitalizations. The rate of firearm injuries initially declined from 2016-H1 to 2018-H2 (SPC = - 4.0%, p = 0.002), followed by increased rates from 2018-H2 to 2020-H1 (SPC = 9.0%, p = 0.005), before stabilizing from 2020-H1 to 2022-H1 (0.5%, p = 0.73). NH black patients had the greatest hospitalization rate from firearm injuries (14.0%) and were the only group to demonstrate a temporal increase (SPC = 6.3%, p < 0.001). The proportion of uninsured patients increased (SPC = 2.3%, p = 0.02) but there were no temporal changes by age or sex. ICU admission rates declined (SPC = - 2.2%, p < 0.001), but ICU LOS increased (SPC = 2.8%, p = 0.04). There were no significant changes over time in rates of death (SPC = 0.3%), severe injury (SPC = 1.6%), blood transfusion (SPC = 0.6%), and mechanical ventilation (SPC = 0.6%). When examined by intent, self-harm injuries declined over time (SPC = - 4.1%, p < 0.001), assaults declined through 2019-H2 (SPC = - 5.6%, p = 0.01) before increasing through 2022-H1 (SPC = 6.5%, p = 0.01), while undetermined injuries increased through 2019-H1 (SPC = 24.1%, p = 0.01) then stabilized (SPC = - 4.5%, p = 0.39); there were no temporal changes in unintentional injuries or legal intervention.

Conclusions: Hospitalizations from firearm injuries are increasing following a period of declines, driven by increases among NH Black patients. Trauma systems need to consider these changing trends to best address the needs of the injured population.