Anthropogenic influence on the extremely low September sea ice and hot summer of 2020 over the arctic and its future risk of occurrence

Abstract

During 2020, the Arctic is marked by extremely low sea ice coverage and hot climate. September Sea Ice Extent (SIE) was about 2.3 million km² below the 1979–2014 mean and the 2nd lowest on the 1979–2020 record, while regional summer (June–August, JJA) mean 2 m air temperature (TAS) was about 1.3 °C above the 1979–2014 mean and was the hottest on record at the time. Locally, September Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) was approximately 70% lower and JJA TAS can be as much as 6.0 °C higher than the 1979–2014 mean. Although the proximate cause for the extreme event was the continuously favorable atmospheric circulation patterns, wind conditions and ice-albedo feedback, the main objective of this paper is probabilistic extreme event attribution studies to assess the anthropogenic influence. Based on the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble products, modeled long-term trends of Arctic sea ice and TAS are consistent with observed trends when including anthropogenic forcing or greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, while cannot exhibit observed trends with only aerosol or natural forcing. Further analysis reveals that human influence including GHG forcing has substantially increased the probability of occurrence of the 2020-like extreme events, which are rare in aerosol-only or natural-only forcing. The frequencies of 2020-like low SIC increase by 19 times with all forcing and 16 times with GHG forcing than with natural forcing. Future climate simulations under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios of SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 show that the 2020-like extreme event that is currently considered rare is projected to become the norm and almost occur 1-in-1 year beyond 2041–2060. The probabilities will be approximately in the range of 0.85–1.00 for SIC and 0.76–0.99 for TAS from low emission of SSP126 to high emission of SSP585.