The Global Road Traffic Death Rate and Human Development Index from 2000 to 2019: A Trend Analysis.

IF 1 4区医学 Q3 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL

Archives of Iranian Medicine Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI:10.34172/aim.2024.18

Mohammad Sayari, Mohammad Reza Rahmanian Haghighi, Kamran Bagheri Lankarani, Sulmaz Ghahramani, Behnam Honarvar

{"title":"The Global Road Traffic Death Rate and Human Development Index from 2000 to 2019: A Trend Analysis.","authors":"Mohammad Sayari, Mohammad Reza Rahmanian Haghighi, Kamran Bagheri Lankarani, Sulmaz Ghahramani, Behnam Honarvar","doi":"10.34172/aim.2024.18","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Background: Numerous studies on the association between the human development index (HDI) and road traffic death rate (RTDR) merely focus on developed countries, not reflecting the relationship between the HDI components and RTDR in a time-trend analysis. Accordingly, this study analyzes the trends of RTDR and their association with the HDI and its components from 2000 to 2019.Methods: The RTDR data of 154 countries were imported into the unconditional latent growth model (LGM) to assess the RTDR trends. The impact of the HDI and its components (viz., education, income, and life expectancy [LE viz]) on the trajectory of RTDR was also evaluated using the conditional LGM.Results: The results of the unconditional LGM indicated an overall decreasing trend in RTDR. The conditional LGM results revealed the negative effect of the HDI and its components on the model parameters. The findings of random forests indicated that education and LE were the most crucial variables.Conclusion: Overall, this study emphasizes the significance of HDI and its components, particularly education and LE, in lowering the number of traffic fatalities. In this sense, improving formal education and LE could be one of the main policies that policymakers could consider to reduce RTDR.","PeriodicalId":55469,"journal":{"name":"Archives of Iranian Medicine","volume":"27 3","pages":"113-121"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11097312/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Archives of Iranian Medicine","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.34172/aim.2024.18","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Numerous studies on the association between the human development index (HDI) and road traffic death rate (RTDR) merely focus on developed countries, not reflecting the relationship between the HDI components and RTDR in a time-trend analysis. Accordingly, this study analyzes the trends of RTDR and their association with the HDI and its components from 2000 to 2019.

Methods: The RTDR data of 154 countries were imported into the unconditional latent growth model (LGM) to assess the RTDR trends. The impact of the HDI and its components (viz., education, income, and life expectancy [LE viz]) on the trajectory of RTDR was also evaluated using the conditional LGM.

Results: The results of the unconditional LGM indicated an overall decreasing trend in RTDR. The conditional LGM results revealed the negative effect of the HDI and its components on the model parameters. The findings of random forests indicated that education and LE were the most crucial variables.

Conclusion: Overall, this study emphasizes the significance of HDI and its components, particularly education and LE, in lowering the number of traffic fatalities. In this sense, improving formal education and LE could be one of the main policies that policymakers could consider to reduce RTDR.

查看原文本刊更多论文

2000 至 2019 年全球道路交通死亡率与人类发展指数：趋势分析》。

背景：许多关于人类发展指数（HDI）与道路交通死亡率（RTDR）之间关系的研究仅仅关注发达国家，没有在时间趋势分析中反映人类发展指数组成部分与道路交通死亡率之间的关系。因此，本研究分析了 2000 年至 2019 年道路交通死亡率的变化趋势及其与人类发展指数及其组成部分的关系：方法：将 154 个国家的 RTDR 数据导入无条件潜在增长模型（LGM），以评估 RTDR 的趋势。还使用条件潜在增长模型评估了人类发展指数及其组成部分（即教育、收入和预期寿命[LE viz]）对实时死亡率轨迹的影响：无条件 LGM 的结果表明，实时死亡率总体呈下降趋势。有条件 LGM 的结果显示，人类发展指数及其组成部分对模型参数有负面影响。随机森林的结果表明，教育和 LE 是最关键的变量：总之，本研究强调了人类发展指数及其组成部分（尤其是教育和生活水平）在降低交通事故死亡人数方面的重要性。从这个意义上讲，改善正规教育和生活水平可能是决策者为降低 RTDR 而考虑的主要政策之一。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Archives of Iranian Medicine 医学-医学：内科

CiteScore

4.20

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

3-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Aim and Scope: The Archives of Iranian Medicine (AIM) is a monthly peer-reviewed multidisciplinary medical publication. The journal welcomes contributions particularly relevant to the Middle-East region and publishes biomedical experiences and clinical investigations on prevalent diseases in the region as well as analyses of factors that may modulate the incidence, course, and management of diseases and pertinent medical problems. Manuscripts with didactic orientation and subjects exclusively of local interest will not be considered for publication.The 2016 Impact Factor of "Archives of Iranian Medicine" is 1.20.