Changes in stillbirths and child and youth mortality in 2020 and 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

IF 6.4 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Enrique Acosta, Lucia Hug, Helena Cruz-Castanheira, David Sharrow, José Henrique Monteiro da Silva, Danzhen You
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has been extensively studied for its impact on mortality, particularly in older age groups. However, the pandemic effects on stillbirths and mortality rates in neonates, infants, children and youth remain poorly understood. This study comprehensively analyses the pandemic influence on young mortality and stillbirths across 112 countries and territories in 2020 and 104 in 2021.

Methods: Using data from civil registers and vital statistics systems (CRVS) and the Health Management Information System (HMIS), we estimate expected mortality levels in a non-pandemic setting and relative mortality changes (p-scores) through generalized linear models. The analysis focuses on the distribution of country-specific mortality changes and the proportion of countries experiencing deficits, no changes and excess mortality in each age group.

Results: Results show that stillbirths and under-25 mortality were as expected in most countries during 2020 and 2021. However, among countries with changes, more experienced deficits than excess mortality, except for stillbirths, neonates and those aged 10-24 in 2021, where, despite the predominance of no changes, excess mortality prevailed. Notably, a fifth of examined countries saw increases in stillbirths and a quarter in young adult mortality (20-24) in 2021. Our findings are highly consistent between females and males and similar across income levels.

Conclusion: Despite global disruptions to essential services, stillbirths and youth mortality were as expected in most observed countries, challenging initial hypotheses. However, the study suggests the possibility of delayed adverse effects that require more time to manifest at the population level. Understanding the lasting impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic requires ongoing, long-term monitoring of health and deaths among children and youth, particularly in low- and lower-middle-income countries.

COVID-19 大流行期间 2020 年和 2021 年死产率以及儿童和青少年死亡率的变化。
背景:COVID-19 大流行对死亡率的影响已被广泛研究,尤其是对老年群体的影响。然而,人们对大流行对死胎以及新生儿、婴儿、儿童和青少年死亡率的影响仍然知之甚少。本研究全面分析了 2020 年大流行对 112 个国家和地区以及 2021 年对 104 个国家和地区的青少年死亡率和死胎率的影响:利用民事登记和生命统计系统 (CRVS) 以及卫生管理信息系统 (HMIS) 的数据,我们通过广义线性模型估算了非大流行环境下的预期死亡率水平和相对死亡率变化(P 值)。分析的重点是具体国家死亡率变化的分布情况,以及在每个年龄组中出现赤字、无变化和超额死亡率的国家比例:结果表明,在 2020 年和 2021 年期间,大多数国家的死胎和 25 岁以下死亡率符合预期。然而,在有变化的国家中,出现赤字的国家多于出现超额死亡率的国家,但 2021 年死胎、新生儿和 10-24 岁年龄组除外,在这些年龄组中,尽管没有变化的国家占多数,但出现超额死亡率的国家占多数。值得注意的是,在 2021 年,五分之一的受检国家死胎死亡率上升,四分之一的国家青年(20-24 岁)死亡率上升。我们的研究结果在女性和男性之间高度一致,在不同收入水平之间也相似:尽管全球基本服务受到破坏,但在大多数被观察国家,死产和青年死亡率与预期相符,这对最初的假设提出了挑战。然而,这项研究表明,可能存在延迟的不利影响,需要更多时间才能在人口层面显现出来。要了解 COVID-19 大流行的持久影响,需要对儿童和青少年的健康和死亡情况进行持续、长期的监测,尤其是在低收入和中低收入国家。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
International journal of epidemiology
International journal of epidemiology 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生
CiteScore
13.60
自引率
2.60%
发文量
226
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Epidemiology is a vital resource for individuals seeking to stay updated on the latest advancements and emerging trends in the field of epidemiology worldwide. The journal fosters communication among researchers, educators, and practitioners involved in the study, teaching, and application of epidemiology pertaining to both communicable and non-communicable diseases. It also includes research on health services and medical care. Furthermore, the journal presents new methodologies in epidemiology and statistics, catering to professionals working in social and preventive medicine. Published six times a year, the International Journal of Epidemiology provides a comprehensive platform for the analysis of data. Overall, this journal is an indispensable tool for staying informed and connected within the dynamic realm of epidemiology.
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