Evaluation of precipitation extremes in ERA5 reanalysis driven regional climate simulations over the CORDEX-Australasia domain

IF 6.1 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2024-05-04 DOI:10.1016/j.wace.2024.100676

Fei Ji , Giovanni Di Virgilio , Nidhi Nishant , Eugene Tam , Jason P. Evans , Jatin Kala , Julia Andrys , Chris Thomas , Matthew L. Riley

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Reanalysis-driven regional climate simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in New South Wales (NSW) and Australian Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) Version 2.0 are assessed for capturing precipitation extreme indices. Seven configurations of the WRF model driven by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) for Australia from 1979 to 2020 at 20 km resolution are evaluated. We assess the spatiotemporal patterns of six selected Expert Team on Sector-Specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI) precipitation extremes by comparing regional climate model (RCM) simulations against gridded observations. The RCMs evaluated have varying levels of accuracy in simulating precipitation extremes. While they capture climatology and coefficient of variation of precipitation extremes relatively well, temporal correlation and trend reproduction present challenges. Some RCMs perform more effectively for specific extreme indices, while others encounter challenges in accurately replicating them. No single RCM excels in all aspects, highlighting the need to consider specific strengths when selecting RCMs for global climate model (GCM) driven simulations.

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ERA5再分析驱动的CORDEX-Australasia区域气候模拟中极端降水的评估

利用新南威尔士州天气研究与预报（WRF）模式和澳大利亚区域气候模式（NARCliM）2.0 版对再分析驱动的区域气候模拟进行了评估，以捕捉降水极端指数。评估了由 ECMWF（欧洲中期天气预报中心）再分析 v5（ERA5）驱动的 1979-2020 年澳大利亚 20 千米分辨率 WRF 模式的七种配置。我们通过比较区域气候模式（RCM）模拟与网格观测数据，评估了六个选定的特定部门气候指数（ET-SCI）极端降水的时空模式。所评估的区域气候模式在模拟极端降水方面具有不同程度的准确性。虽然它们能较好地捕捉极端降水的气候学和变异系数，但在时间相关性和趋势再现方面存在挑战。一些区域气候模型对特定极端指数的表现更为有效，而另一些则在准确复制这些指数方面遇到了挑战。没有一个区域气候模型在所有方面都表现出色，这突出表明，在为全球气候模型（GCM）驱动的模拟选择区域气候模型时，需要考虑其具体优势。

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来源期刊

Weather and Climate Extremes Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

11.00

自引率

7.50%

发文量

102

审稿时长

33 weeks

期刊介绍： Weather and Climate Extremes Target Audience: Academics Decision makers International development agencies Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) Civil society Focus Areas: Research in weather and climate extremes Monitoring and early warning systems Assessment of vulnerability and impacts Developing and implementing intervention policies Effective risk management and adaptation practices Engagement of local communities in adopting coping strategies Information and communication strategies tailored to local and regional needs and circumstances