Evaluating innovation ecosystem resiliency using agent-based modeling and systems dynamics

Abstract

Evaluating the resilience of the innovation ecosystem to maintain its performance, in the sense of resistance to disruption and recovery after it, has recently received more attention. Several studies have been conducted to model different ecosystems and evaluate their resilience. However, modeling the innovation ecosystem from a holistic perspective and performing a quantitative assessment of its resilience have received less attention. This paper models the innovation ecosystem holistically and evaluates its resilience index using a quantitative approach through five main steps. In the first step, a case study related to the innovation ecosystem of Iran's Ministry of Energy, called the Power Innovation Ecosystem, is modeled by combining system dynamics and agent-based modeling. Upon validating the model in the second step, the disruption of the loss of experts is investigated in the third step, and all possible actions to recover each actor are analyzed. In the fourth step, the performance of the ecosystem is simulated before and after the disruption using the data gathered in the previous steps. Finally, resilience is calculated in two different ways in the fifth step. Several improvement solutions are also suggested when considering that the resilience index of the innovation ecosystem is at a medium level. This research may assist policymakers in observing the resilience level of the innovation ecosystem based on the proposed model. By applying strategic changes to this model, they can determine the effects of their policies and make the most appropriate decisions to increase the resilience of the innovation ecosystem.