Unleashing potential: Model-based reform benchmarking for EU Member States

IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Philipp Pfeiffer, Janos Varga, Jan in 't Veld
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Supply-side policies take centre stage in the EU's post-pandemic recovery plans. This paper employs a benchmarking approach to quantify the potential impact of structural reforms in the EU Member States. Based on a comprehensive collection of structural indicators and a rich endogenous growth model, we evaluate reforms in five policy areas: (i) market competition and regulation; (ii) taxation; (iii) skills and education; (iv) labour markets; and (v) research and development. For each indicator and Member State, we simulate the closing of half of the gap with the EU's best performers, implying ambitious reforms for countries with significant distance to the frontier. For these stylised reforms, we find significant potential gains in employment and output, raising EU GDP by around 2% and 8% after five and twenty years, respectively. In the long run, the policies can increase EU GDP by over 20%. The policies also reduce economic disparities between countries, given different scope for reform. For countries with a sizable distance to the best performers, increases in potential GDP could exceed 40% when halving the gap across all indicators. Among the reforms considered here, human capital investment emerges as central for enhancing growth potential. In addition, we find synergies across reforms and countries and assess the sensitivity to alternative assumptions on technology dynamics in our model.

释放潜力:欧盟成员国基于模式的改革基准
供应方政策是欧盟大流行病后复苏计划的核心。本文采用基准方法量化欧盟成员国结构改革的潜在影响。基于一系列全面的结构性指标和丰富的内生增长模型,我们对五个政策领域的改革进行了评估:(i) 市场竞争与监管;(ii) 税收;(iii) 技能与教育;(iv) 劳动力市场;以及 (v) 研究与开发。对于每个指标和每个成员国,我们模拟缩小与欧盟表现最佳国家的一半差距,这意味着与前沿国家有很大差距的国家要进行雄心勃勃的改革。对于这些风格化改革,我们发现其在就业和产出方面具有显著的潜在收益,在五年和二十年后可将欧盟国内生产总值分别提高约 2% 和 8%。从长远来看,这些政策可使欧盟国内生产总值增长 20% 以上。由于各国的改革空间不同,这些政策还能缩小各国之间的经济差距。对于与表现最好的国家有相当大差距的国家,当所有指标的差距减半时,潜在 GDP 的增长可能超过 40%。在本文考虑的改革中,人力资本投资是提高增长潜力的核心。此外,我们还发现了不同改革和国家之间的协同效应,并评估了模型中技术动态替代假设的敏感性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
10.00%
发文量
106
期刊介绍: The aim of the European Journal of Political Economy is to disseminate original theoretical and empirical research on economic phenomena within a scope that encompasses collective decision making, political behavior, and the role of institutions. Contributions are invited from the international community of researchers. Manuscripts must be published in English. Starting 2008, the European Journal of Political Economy is indexed in the Social Sciences Citation Index published by Thomson Scientific (formerly ISI).
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