Adopting the euro: A synthetic control approach

IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Ricardo Duque Gabriel , Ana Sofia Pessoa
{"title":"Adopting the euro: A synthetic control approach","authors":"Ricardo Duque Gabriel ,&nbsp;Ana Sofia Pessoa","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102537","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We investigate whether joining the European Monetary Union and losing the ability to set monetary policy affected the economic growth of Eurozone countries. We use the synthetic control approach to create a counterfactual scenario for how each Eurozone country would have evolved without adopting the euro. We let this matching algorithm determine which combination of other developed economies best resembles the pre-euro path of twelve Eurozone economies. Our estimates suggest that most countries’ economic growth was not significantly affected. There were some mild losers (France, Germany, Italy, and Portugal) and a clear winner (Ireland). The drivers of these economic gains and losses are heterogeneous. First, we find that Ireland’s economic gains are more modest when excluding profits and income earned by foreigners. Second, our results show that adopting the euro spurred government consumption and trade and deterred private consumption and investment, on average.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"European Journal of Political Economy","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268024000399","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

We investigate whether joining the European Monetary Union and losing the ability to set monetary policy affected the economic growth of Eurozone countries. We use the synthetic control approach to create a counterfactual scenario for how each Eurozone country would have evolved without adopting the euro. We let this matching algorithm determine which combination of other developed economies best resembles the pre-euro path of twelve Eurozone economies. Our estimates suggest that most countries’ economic growth was not significantly affected. There were some mild losers (France, Germany, Italy, and Portugal) and a clear winner (Ireland). The drivers of these economic gains and losses are heterogeneous. First, we find that Ireland’s economic gains are more modest when excluding profits and income earned by foreigners. Second, our results show that adopting the euro spurred government consumption and trade and deterred private consumption and investment, on average.

采用欧元:合成控制方法
我们研究了加入欧洲货币联盟和失去制定货币政策的能力是否会影响欧元区国家的经济增长。我们采用合成控制法,为每个欧元区国家在不采用欧元的情况下的发展创造一个反事实情景。我们让这种匹配算法来确定其他发达经济体的哪种组合最接近 12 个欧元区经济体采用欧元前的发展路径。我们的估计结果表明,大多数国家的经济增长并未受到重大影响。有一些轻微的输家(法国、德国、意大利和葡萄牙)和一个明显的赢家(爱尔兰)。这些经济收益和损失的驱动因素各不相同。首先,我们发现,在剔除外国人赚取的利润和收入后,爱尔兰的经济收益更小。其次,我们的结果表明,采用欧元平均刺激了政府消费和贸易,阻碍了私人消费和投资。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
10.00%
发文量
106
期刊介绍: The aim of the European Journal of Political Economy is to disseminate original theoretical and empirical research on economic phenomena within a scope that encompasses collective decision making, political behavior, and the role of institutions. Contributions are invited from the international community of researchers. Manuscripts must be published in English. Starting 2008, the European Journal of Political Economy is indexed in the Social Sciences Citation Index published by Thomson Scientific (formerly ISI).
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信