Heavy snowfall has already been enhanced by anthropogenic global warming in Japan

IF 1.7 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Sola Pub Date : 2024-04-26 DOI:10.2151/sola.2024-023

Hiroaki Kawase, Shunichi I. Watanabe, Tosiyuki Nakaegawa, Yukiko Imada

{"title":"Heavy snowfall has already been enhanced by anthropogenic global warming in Japan","authors":"Hiroaki Kawase, Shunichi I. Watanabe, Tosiyuki Nakaegawa, Yukiko Imada","doi":"10.2151/sola.2024-023","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Large-ensemble experiments with global and regional climate models enable us to assess changes in the risks of local-scale heavy snowfall due to anthropogenic global warming. We conduct 100-ensemble historical and non-warming global climate experiments forced by oceanic conditions in 2021/22 when La Niña phenomena occurred, and conduct dynamical downscaling using regional climate models with 20 km and 5 km grid intervals. The 10-year return values of total winter snowfall decrease in most of Japan due to anthropogenic global warming, while they increase at high elevations and the northern parts of Japan. The winter-maximum daily snowfall is enhanced not only over high elevations but also over low elevations in Japan. Tsunan Town is located in an inland area of central Japan where the winter-maximum daily snowfall is enhanced by anthropogenic global warming. Composite analyses of winter-maximum daily snowfall events at the Tsunan weather station indicate that the enhancement of daily snowfall due to anthropogenic global warming is related to deeper troughs at 500 hPa and warmer and more humid air in the lower atmosphere in the historical 2021/22 winter than those in the non-global-warming 2021/22 winter.\n","PeriodicalId":49501,"journal":{"name":"Sola","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Sola","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2024-023","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Large-ensemble experiments with global and regional climate models enable us to assess changes in the risks of local-scale heavy snowfall due to anthropogenic global warming. We conduct 100-ensemble historical and non-warming global climate experiments forced by oceanic conditions in 2021/22 when La Niña phenomena occurred, and conduct dynamical downscaling using regional climate models with 20 km and 5 km grid intervals. The 10-year return values of total winter snowfall decrease in most of Japan due to anthropogenic global warming, while they increase at high elevations and the northern parts of Japan. The winter-maximum daily snowfall is enhanced not only over high elevations but also over low elevations in Japan. Tsunan Town is located in an inland area of central Japan where the winter-maximum daily snowfall is enhanced by anthropogenic global warming. Composite analyses of winter-maximum daily snowfall events at the Tsunan weather station indicate that the enhancement of daily snowfall due to anthropogenic global warming is related to deeper troughs at 500 hPa and warmer and more humid air in the lower atmosphere in the historical 2021/22 winter than those in the non-global-warming 2021/22 winter.

查看原文本刊更多论文

日本的大雪已因全球人为变暖而增多

全球和区域气候模式的大集合实验使我们能够评估人为全球变暖导致的地方尺度强降雪风险的变化。我们在 2021/22 年发生拉尼娜现象的海洋条件下进行了 100 次历史和非气候变暖的全球气候实验，并使用网格间隔为 20 千米和 5 千米的区域气候模型进行了动态降尺度。由于全球人为变暖，日本大部分地区冬季总降雪量的 10 年回归值下降，而高海拔地区和日本北部地区的回归值上升。日本冬季最大日降雪量不仅在高海拔地区有所增加，在低海拔地区也有所增加。津南町位于日本中部内陆地区，该地区的冬季最大日降雪量因全球人为变暖而增加。对津南气象站的冬季最大日降雪量事件进行的综合分析表明，全球人为变暖导致的日降雪量增加与 2021/22 年冬季的历史低谷在 500 hPa 的深度以及低层大气中比 2021/22 年非全球变暖冬季更温暖、更潮湿的空气有关。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Sola 地学-气象与大气科学

CiteScore

3.50

自引率

21.10%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： SOLA (Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere) is a peer-reviewed, Open Access, online-only journal. It publishes scientific discoveries and advances in understanding in meteorology, climatology, the atmospheric sciences and related interdisciplinary areas. SOLA focuses on presenting new and scientifically rigorous observations, experiments, data analyses, numerical modeling, data assimilation, and technical developments as quickly as possible. It achieves this via rapid peer review and publication of research letters, published as Regular Articles. Published and supported by the Meteorological Society of Japan, the journal follows strong research and publication ethics principles. Most manuscripts receive a first decision within one month and a decision upon resubmission within a further month. Accepted articles are then quickly published on the journal’s website, where they are easily accessible to our broad audience.