The influence of age, period, and cohort factors on the incidence of kidney cancer in Spain 1990-2019: Evidence from the global burden of disease study

Abstract

Objective

This study aimed to assess the influence of age, period, and cohort (A-P-C) factors on kidney cancer (KC) incidence trends in Spain from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

Employing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we employed joinpoint analysis to determine long-term patterns and A-P-C modelling to quantify net drift, local drift, longitudinal age curves, and rate ratios (RRs) of period and cohort effects.

Results

Over the period 1990–2019, an estimated 142,811 cases of KC were diagnosed in Spain. A consistent upward trend in KC incidence was observed for both men and women, with the male-to-female ratio remaining stable at 2.6. Joinpoint analysis identified three distinct periods for men: An initial period (1990–1995) characterised by a significant increase in rates, a subsequent period (1995–2016) characterised by a slowdown in the rate of increase, and a final period (2016–2019) in which rates have plateaued. In women, 2 time periods were observed: an initial period (1990–2007) in which rates increased significantly, followed by a period of stabilization (2007–2019).

Men born in the early-mid 20th century had a rising KC risk, peaking in the 1960s. Women’s risk rose steadily, peaking in the late 1990s.

Conclusion

A-P-C analysis reveals steady KC incidence increase in both genders over three decades. This highlights the need for targeted public health policies and effective prevention strategies.