Probabilistic risk assessment: Hazard impact study of safety-critical space launch events onto world air traffic & creation of ADIONA software

Abstract

Space and air traffic increase yearly, prompting concerns about their coexistence. Fallback and splashdown of rocket stages to earth into predefined areas is a usual scenario, explosions of rockets and fallback into unprecedented areas is a probable scenario. These events represent a threat to world air traffic. In the present study, a probabilistic risk assessment on the launcher's stages fallback onto world air traffic has been carried out. A novel method and software, ADIONA, were developed to assess risks of rocket explosions and debris impact on air traffic. This pioneering software, a venture of the Flight Safety Department of the French Space Agency (CNES), supervising European Space Agency (ESA) launches, calculates at every possible time instant, defined by the user, the estimated positions of airplanes with along their own trajectories, trajectories and positions of rockets and the corresponding areas where debris falls back on earth after an explosion or a deviation. It further assesses the risks of fall down of debris on air traffic in case of a launch mishap and the probability of fatality to an airplane regarding the risk boundaries set by the French Space Operations Act. The software has been implemented in a general way for broad future application in operations and continued studies and use. Real-world air traffic and rocket launch data were incorporated, particularly focusing on launches from the French Guiana Space Center (CSG) and air traffic over the North Atlantic Ocean. These real-world analyses represent realistic scenarios. The obtained results show a considerable high possible risk onto world air traffic in case of a rocket explosion after launch. It is concluded that the cohabitation of space and air traffic and the probabilistic risk assessment thereof is important to be monitored in order to eventually be diminished to reduce the risk. It is recommended to invest further resources into this observation type of analysis. Further investigations should take place on this probabilistic risk analysis, taking into account more details and fine-tuning in the risk calculation and assessment method. The study's findings and software lay the groundwork for future risk analysis and development, facilitating ongoing and future investigations.