{"title":"Unusually weak signal of summer surface air temperature change over North China","authors":"Fangyuan Cheng, Zhiyan Zuo, Kaiwen Zhang, Meiyu Chang, Dong Xiao","doi":"10.1002/joc.8413","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Under global warming, the summer surface air temperature (SAT) change signal in the northern mid-latitudes is generally the most significant, while the SAT change in North China (NC) shows distinct local characteristics. Using simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and observation from Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature, this study reveals an unusually weak signal of summer SAT change in NC since the 1960s. This uniquely weak signal can be attributed to the small net contribution of external forcings, mainly from anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols (AA). Compared to other land regions in the same latitudinal band, the GHG-induced warming was weaker and AA-induced cooling was stronger in NC, resulting in the weakest SAT change signal and thus the lowest signal-to-noise ratio. This weaker GHG-induced warming plays a more important role in the SAT change difference between NC and other land regions in the same latitudinal zone. Under different emission scenarios in the future, the signal-to-noise ratio in NC will become as large as those in the other land regions in the same latitudinal band and the northern hemisphere, which is partly due to the smaller relative differences in the SAT change signal between NC and the other two regions. The projections of SAT change indicate that climate change in NC will probably become more violent and vulnerable.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Climatology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.8413","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Under global warming, the summer surface air temperature (SAT) change signal in the northern mid-latitudes is generally the most significant, while the SAT change in North China (NC) shows distinct local characteristics. Using simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and observation from Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature, this study reveals an unusually weak signal of summer SAT change in NC since the 1960s. This uniquely weak signal can be attributed to the small net contribution of external forcings, mainly from anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols (AA). Compared to other land regions in the same latitudinal band, the GHG-induced warming was weaker and AA-induced cooling was stronger in NC, resulting in the weakest SAT change signal and thus the lowest signal-to-noise ratio. This weaker GHG-induced warming plays a more important role in the SAT change difference between NC and other land regions in the same latitudinal zone. Under different emission scenarios in the future, the signal-to-noise ratio in NC will become as large as those in the other land regions in the same latitudinal band and the northern hemisphere, which is partly due to the smaller relative differences in the SAT change signal between NC and the other two regions. The projections of SAT change indicate that climate change in NC will probably become more violent and vulnerable.
在全球变暖的情况下,北半球中纬度地区的夏季地表气温变化信号通常最为显著,而华北地区的夏季地表气温变化则表现出明显的局地特征。本研究利用耦合模式相互比较项目第六阶段的模拟结果和伯克利地球表面温度观测结果,揭示了自 20 世纪 60 年代以来华北地区夏季地表气温变化异常微弱的信号。这种独特的微弱信号可归因于外部强迫的净贡献较小,主要来自人为温室气体和气溶胶。与同一纬度带的其他陆地地区相比,北卡罗来纳州的温室气体引起的变暖较弱,而气溶胶引起的降温较强,因此其 SAT 变化信号最弱,信噪比也最低。这种较弱的温室气体诱导的变暖在北卡罗来纳州与同纬度带其他陆地地区的 SAT 变化差异中起着更重要的作用。在未来不同的排放情景下,北卡罗来纳州的信噪比将与同纬度带和北半球其他陆地地区的信噪比一样大,这部分是由于北卡罗来纳州与其他两个地区的 SAT 变化信号的相对差异较小。对 SAT 变化的预测表明,北卡罗来纳州的气候变化可能会更加剧烈和脆弱。
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions