Governors in the Digital Era: Analyzing and Predicting Social Media Engagement Using Machine Learning during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the social media posts of prefectural governors in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic. It investigates the correlation between social media activity levels, governors’ characteristics, and engagement metrics. To predict citizen engagement of a specific tweet, machine learning models (MLMs) are trained using three feature sets. The first set includes variables representing profile- and tweet-related features. The second set incorporates word embeddings from three popular models, while the third set combines the first set with one of the embeddings. Additionally, seven classifiers are employed. The best-performing model utilizes the first feature set with FastText embedding and the XGBoost classifier. This study aims to collect governors’ COVID-19-related tweets, analyze engagement metrics, investigate correlations with governors’ characteristics, examine tweet-related features, and train MLMs for prediction. This paper’s main contributions are twofold. Firstly, it offers an analysis of social media engagement by prefectural governors during the COVID-19 pandemic, shedding light on their communication strategies and citizen engagement outcomes. Secondly, it explores the effectiveness of MLMs and word embeddings in predicting tweet engagement, providing practical implications for policymakers in crisis communication. The findings emphasize the importance of social media engagement for effective governance and provide insights into factors influencing citizen engagement.