Analysis and Forecasting of Shenzhen GDP Application and Comparison of Time Series Models

Abstract

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) serves as a core indicator in the national economic accounting system and plays a crucial role in assessing the economic development of a country or region. In order to explore the future development trend of GDP in Shenzhen in the coming years, this paper uses GDP data from the past 42 years (1979-2021) in Shenzhen as samples and fits an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to the second-order differenced GDP series. After testing the fitted model, the ARIMA model is used to forecast the GDP values of Shenzhen for the next six years (2022-2027). By utilizing the model to predict the GDP values of Shenzhen for the next six years, it is concluded that Shenzhen's GDP will increase year by year over the next six years, and the upward trend is relatively stable.