Distinguishing climate change impacts from development impacts on summer low flows in Puget Sound streams

IF 2.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL
Nicholas Georgiadis, Kevin Bogue, Curtis DeGasperi
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Abstract

In many Puget Sound streams, summer low flows have declined in recent decades, and are projected to decline further. Concerns that humans may be responsible have focused on two main causes: anthropogenic climate warming and aspects of development, including urbanization and the abstraction of groundwater. Difficulty in distinguishing their relative impacts has hindered the conception and design of strategies intended to restore and enhance future low flows. We analyzed trends in low flows over recent decades, separating the effects of these factors in two steps. First, low flow variation was assessed in 23 basins that are minimally disturbed by development. Low flows varied over time, and with elevation, in complex ways, consistent with the loss of snowpack at elevations >~800 m. Second, low flow trends in developed lowland basins were compared with trends in a minimally developed lowland reference basin. Flows in developed basins deviated from a purely climate-driven pattern in unique ways, reflecting unique histories of development. In 21 lowland basins, there was no consistent decline in low flows with increasing impervious land cover, at least between 2001 and 2019. Effects on low flows of private wells alone could be assessed in only one basin, but no impact was evident. An assessment of projected relative impacts on low flows of urbanization, rural development, and anthropogenic warming suggested that the latter will be the greatest.

区分气候变化和发展对普吉特海湾溪流夏季低流量的影响
在普吉特海湾的许多溪流中,夏季低流量在近几十年来有所下降,而且预计还会进一步下降。对人类可能造成的影响的担忧主要集中在两个方面:人为的气候变暖和发展的各个方面,包括城市化和地下水的抽取。由于难以区分它们的相对影响,因此阻碍了旨在恢复和提高未来低流量的战略的构思和设计。我们分析了近几十年来的低流量趋势,分两步分析了这些因素的影响。首先,我们对 23 个受开发影响最小的流域的低流量变化进行了评估。随着时间的推移和海拔的升高,低流量发生了复杂的变化,这与海拔 >~800 米处积雪的减少是一致的。其次,将已开发低地盆地的低流量趋势与开发程度最低的低地参照盆地的趋势进行了比较。已开发流域的流量以独特的方式偏离了纯粹由气候驱动的模式,反映了独特的开发历史。在 21 个低地盆地中,至少在 2001 年至 2019 年期间,低流量并没有随着不透水土地覆盖面积的增加而持续下降。仅有一个流域可以评估私人水井对低流量的影响,但影响并不明显。在对城市化、农村发展和人为变暖对低流量的相对影响进行评估后发现,后者的影响最大。
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来源期刊
Journal of The American Water Resources Association
Journal of The American Water Resources Association 环境科学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
12.50%
发文量
100
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: JAWRA seeks to be the preeminent scholarly publication on multidisciplinary water resources issues. JAWRA papers present ideas derived from multiple disciplines woven together to give insight into a critical water issue, or are based primarily upon a single discipline with important applications to other disciplines. Papers often cover the topics of recent AWRA conferences such as riparian ecology, geographic information systems, adaptive management, and water policy. JAWRA authors present work within their disciplinary fields to a broader audience. Our Associate Editors and reviewers reflect this diversity to ensure a knowledgeable and fair review of a broad range of topics. We particularly encourage submissions of papers which impart a ''take home message'' our readers can use.
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