Strategic Priorities for the Development of Food Security of the State Taking into Account Hybrid Threats and Challenges

V. V. Krasnova, A. A. Dryndak
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Abstract

Relevance. Food security is one of the most urgent and complex problems of the modern world. In the context of globalization, climate change, economic fluctuations and other factors, ensuring the stability and reliability of food security is becoming a complex task that requires effective strategies.The purpose is to analyze and evaluate strategic priorities in the field of food security, taking into account complex hybrid threats and challenges. Objectives: identification of strategic alternatives; development of a mathematical model with fuzzy variables and rules for evaluating strategic alternatives; analysis of evaluation results to identify the most effective strategic directions.Methodology. The research methodology included the use of fuzzy logic methods to build a mathematical model for evaluating strategic alternatives.Results. As a result of the study, it was revealed that the strategic alternative S1 received the highest rating, emphasizing its key importance for the sustainability of the food system. Alternatives S7, S9, S4 and S3 also have high ratings, which makes them potentially effective for ensuring food security. Alternatives S10, S8, S2, S6 and S5 are less of a priority, but are important for reducing various risks associated with food security, such as lack of food and vulnerability of supplies.Conclusions. The results of the study allowed us to conclude that the use of the fuzzy logic tool provides an opportunity to conduct a deeper and more comprehensive analysis of complex factors affecting food security. This approach allows us to take into account the uncertainty and multidimensionality of data related to the food system and introduce more accurate modeling of this dynamic area. Such a method enriches the decision-making process in the field of food security, contributing to the development of more effective strategic decisions and management approaches that take into account a variety of factors and their interaction. This contributes to improving the quality of research and helps to form more rational and informed strategies that contribute to ensuring the stability and reliability of food security.
考虑到混合威胁和挑战,发展国家粮食安全的战略重点
相关性。粮食安全是当今世界最紧迫、最复杂的问题之一。在全球化、气候变化、经济波动和其他因素的背景下,确保粮食安全的稳定性和可靠性正成为一项复杂的任务,需要有效的战略。目的是分析和评估粮食安全领域的战略重点,同时考虑到复杂的混合威胁和挑战。目标:确定战略备选方案;建立带有模糊变量和规则的数学模型,用于评估战略备选方案;分析评估结果,确定最有效的战略方向。研究方法包括使用模糊逻辑方法建立评估战略备选方案的数学模型。研究结果表明,战略备选方案 S1 获得的评价最高,强调了其对粮食系统可持续性的关键重要性。替代品 S7、S9、S4 和 S3 也获得了很高的评分,这使得它们在确保粮食安全方面具有潜在的有效性。替代品 S10、S8、S2、S6 和 S5 的优先级较低,但对于降低与粮食安全相关的各种风险(如粮食短缺和供应的脆弱性)非常重要。研究结果使我们得出结论,使用模糊逻辑工具为对影响粮食安全的复杂因素进行更深入、更全面的分析提供了机会。这种方法使我们能够考虑到与粮食系统有关的数据的不确定性和多维性,并对这一动态领域进行更精确的建模。这种方法丰富了粮食安全领域的决策过程,有助于制定更有效的战略决策和管理方法,将各种因素及其相互作用考虑在内。这有助于提高研究质量,有助于制定更加合理和知情的战略,有助于确保粮食安全的稳定性和可靠性。
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