Carbon Market Efficiency and Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from a TVP-VAR Model

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Min Liu, Rong Huang, Yang Lu
{"title":"Carbon Market Efficiency and Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from a TVP-VAR Model","authors":"Min Liu, Rong Huang, Yang Lu","doi":"10.1155/2024/9892400","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the dynamic linkages among economic policy uncertainty (EPU), the green bond market, the carbon market, and the macroeconomy using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with monthly data spanning from January 2016 to December 2021. Additionally, it assesses the robustness and accuracy of the empirical results through the Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model. The findings indicate that EPU negatively affects the green bond market in the short term but has a positive impact in the medium and long term. Conversely, EPU has a positive impact on the carbon market in the short term but a negative impact in the medium and long term. Furthermore, the green bond market negatively influences the carbon market in both the short and medium to long term. These results suggest that emerging markets, such as the green bond and carbon markets, are influenced by EPU. The adverse impact of the green bond market on the carbon market, however, contributes to expediting China’s attainment of its low-carbon objectives. Appropriate economic policies can play a vital role in accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy. The study also reveals that the US-China trade war has expedited the development of green capital markets in China, despite its impact on the green economic transition in the country. These findings provide insights for the government and investors to formulate suitable strategies for risk mitigation.","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":"290 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/9892400","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic linkages among economic policy uncertainty (EPU), the green bond market, the carbon market, and the macroeconomy using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with monthly data spanning from January 2016 to December 2021. Additionally, it assesses the robustness and accuracy of the empirical results through the Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model. The findings indicate that EPU negatively affects the green bond market in the short term but has a positive impact in the medium and long term. Conversely, EPU has a positive impact on the carbon market in the short term but a negative impact in the medium and long term. Furthermore, the green bond market negatively influences the carbon market in both the short and medium to long term. These results suggest that emerging markets, such as the green bond and carbon markets, are influenced by EPU. The adverse impact of the green bond market on the carbon market, however, contributes to expediting China’s attainment of its low-carbon objectives. Appropriate economic policies can play a vital role in accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy. The study also reveals that the US-China trade war has expedited the development of green capital markets in China, despite its impact on the green economic transition in the country. These findings provide insights for the government and investors to formulate suitable strategies for risk mitigation.
碳市场效率与经济政策不确定性:来自 TVP-VAR 模型的证据
本文采用时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)模型,利用2016年1月至2021年12月的月度数据,研究了经济政策不确定性(EPU)、绿色债券市场、碳市场和宏观经济之间的动态联系。此外,研究还通过贝叶斯向量自回归(BVAR)模型评估了实证结果的稳健性和准确性。研究结果表明,EPU 在短期内对绿色债券市场有负面影响,但在中长期内有正面影响。相反,EPU 在短期内对碳市场有积极影响,但在中长期内有消极影响。此外,绿色债券市场在短期和中长期都会对碳市场产生负面影响。这些结果表明,绿色债券和碳市场等新兴市场受到了 EPU 的影响。然而,绿色债券市场对碳市场的负面影响有助于加快中国实现低碳目标。适当的经济政策可以在加速向低碳经济转型方面发挥重要作用。研究还显示,尽管中美贸易战对中国的绿色经济转型产生了影响,但它加快了中国绿色资本市场的发展。这些发现为政府和投资者制定适当的风险缓解战略提供了启示。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信