A Novel Method for Modeling and Predicting Transportation Data Via Multideep Assessment Methodology and Fractional Calculus

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Kevser Şimşek, Nisa Özge Önal Tuğrul, İlhan Çam, K. Karaçuha, Vasil Tabatadze, E. Karaçuha
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Aviation is one of the most global industries, and if we can model and predict a country’s air transportation flow and indicators ahead of time, we may be able to use it as a key decision-making tool for the management and operation process. This study proposes a new modeling, and prediction method that employs both fractional calculus and Multi Deep Assessment Methodology (MDAM) techniques. For the application, air passengers carried, air freight, available seat kilometers, number of flights, destination points, international travelers, international destination points, and international flight data between 2011 and 2019 for eight countries with the busiest airports were chosen. As a result, the highest modeling error was discovered to be Germany’s air transport freight factor expressed as a percentage of 1,59E-02. The percentage of predictions with errors less than 10% was 90.278. We also compared the performance of two different MDAM methodologies. The novel MDAM wd methodology proposed in this paper has a higher accuracy in aviation factors prediction and modeling.
通过多步评估法和分数微积分对交通数据进行建模和预测的新方法
航空业是最具全球性的行业之一,如果我们能提前对一个国家的航空运输流量和指标进行建模和预测,就有可能将其作为管理和运营过程中的重要决策工具。本研究提出了一种新的建模和预测方法,同时采用了分数微积分和多深度评估方法(MDAM)技术。在应用中,选择了八个国家最繁忙机场 2011 年至 2019 年期间的航空客运量、航空货运量、可用座位公里数、航班数量、目的地点、国际旅客、国际目的地点和国际航班数据。结果发现,德国航空运输货运系数的建模误差最大,为 1.59E-02。误差小于 10%的预测百分比为 90.278。我们还比较了两种不同 MDAM 方法的性能。本文提出的新型 MDAM wd 方法在航空因素预测和建模方面具有更高的准确性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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