Binod Pokharel, Kripa Akila Jagannathan, S.-Y. Simon Wang, Andrew Jones, Matthew D. LaPlante, Smitha Buddhavarapu, Krishna Borhara, Paul Ulrich, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, James Eklund, Candice Hasenyager, Jake Serago, James R. Prairie, Laurna Kaatz, Taylor Winchell, Frank Kugel
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Unexpected and large spring precipitation events in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) that significantly alleviated an otherwise severe water shortage have been observed for over a century, such as the “Miracle May” of 2015. Although these events are often termed as “drought-busting” or “miracle events” by water managers and the media, they have not been extensively researched or characterized. In this collaborative study with water managers across the CRB, we propose a definition for these hard-to-predict, ultra-high precipitation events occurring during the late-snow or snowmelt season. This characterization provides a framework for quantifying the frequency and intensity of extreme dry-to-wet springtime transitions. Despite limitations of climate model simulations due to uncertainties and the inhomogeneous qualities, our findings suggest that such transitions may become less frequent and less intense in a warming climate. In view of the potentially wetter but less-snowy climate in the basin, the need for future research to more quantitatively assess these “miracle events” is emphasized.
期刊介绍:
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