Can we rely on drought-ending “miracles” in the Colorado River Basin?

IF 2.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL
Binod Pokharel, Kripa Akila Jagannathan, S.-Y. Simon Wang, Andrew Jones, Matthew D. LaPlante, Smitha Buddhavarapu, Krishna Borhara, Paul Ulrich, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, James Eklund, Candice Hasenyager, Jake Serago, James R. Prairie, Laurna Kaatz, Taylor Winchell, Frank Kugel
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Abstract

Unexpected and large spring precipitation events in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) that significantly alleviated an otherwise severe water shortage have been observed for over a century, such as the “Miracle May” of 2015. Although these events are often termed as “drought-busting” or “miracle events” by water managers and the media, they have not been extensively researched or characterized. In this collaborative study with water managers across the CRB, we propose a definition for these hard-to-predict, ultra-high precipitation events occurring during the late-snow or snowmelt season. This characterization provides a framework for quantifying the frequency and intensity of extreme dry-to-wet springtime transitions. Despite limitations of climate model simulations due to uncertainties and the inhomogeneous qualities, our findings suggest that such transitions may become less frequent and less intense in a warming climate. In view of the potentially wetter but less-snowy climate in the basin, the need for future research to more quantitatively assess these “miracle events” is emphasized.

我们能指望科罗拉多河流域出现旱情结束的 "奇迹 "吗?
一个多世纪以来,科罗拉多河流域(CRB)出现了意想不到的大规模春季降水事件,大大缓解了原本严重的缺水状况,例如 2015 年的 "奇迹五月"。尽管这些事件经常被水资源管理者和媒体称为 "干旱破坏 "或 "奇迹事件",但它们并没有得到广泛的研究或描述。在这项与整个 CRB 水资源管理者的合作研究中,我们为这些发生在晚雪期或融雪期的难以预测的超高降水事件提出了一个定义。这一定义为量化春季极端干旱到湿润过渡的频率和强度提供了一个框架。尽管气候模型模拟因不确定性和非均质性而存在局限性,但我们的研究结果表明,在气候变暖的情况下,这种过渡的频率和强度可能会降低。鉴于该流域的气候可能更加湿润但降雪量更少,我们强调今后的研究需要更加定量地评估这些 "奇迹事件"。
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来源期刊
Journal of The American Water Resources Association
Journal of The American Water Resources Association 环境科学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
12.50%
发文量
100
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: JAWRA seeks to be the preeminent scholarly publication on multidisciplinary water resources issues. JAWRA papers present ideas derived from multiple disciplines woven together to give insight into a critical water issue, or are based primarily upon a single discipline with important applications to other disciplines. Papers often cover the topics of recent AWRA conferences such as riparian ecology, geographic information systems, adaptive management, and water policy. JAWRA authors present work within their disciplinary fields to a broader audience. Our Associate Editors and reviewers reflect this diversity to ensure a knowledgeable and fair review of a broad range of topics. We particularly encourage submissions of papers which impart a ''take home message'' our readers can use.
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