Shifting spatial, temporal and demographic patterns of dengue incidence and associated meteorological factors in Jazan Region of Saudi Arabia from 2015-2020.
Ahmad Y Alqassim, M. Badedi, Mohammed A. Muaddi, Abdullah A. Alharbi, Mohammad A Jareebi, Anwar M Makeen, M. El-Setouhy, Osama B Albasheer, Abdullah Sabai, Ahmed Sahly
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Abstract
BACKGROUND
Dengue poses a considerable public health threat in Saudi Arabia, with escalating outbreaks in Jazan, where seasonal rains create ideal mosquito breeding conditions. Elucidating local epidemiological dynamics is imperative to strengthen evidence-based prevention policies. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal, demographic, and meteorological patterns of dengue in Jazan from 2015-2020.
METHODS
This retrospective cross-sectional study utilized surveillance records for 3427 confirmed dengue cases. Descriptive analyses characterized geographic, seasonal, age, sex, and nationality distributions. Forecasting models project expected epidemics through 2025. Regression analysis identified climate factors associated with monthly case counts.
RESULTS
Dengue exhibited shifting seasonal peaks, transitioning into year-round transmission by 2019, indicating endemic establishment. Cases clustered in different high-burden sectors annually, requiring localized vector control. The majority of affected individuals were young male adults, with gender gaps narrowing over time. Saudi nationals had an escalating incidence, but non-citizens showed a higher risk, signaling importation threats. Seasonal outbreaks were associated with temperature, wind speed, and direction.
CONCLUSION
Enhanced surveillance, outbreak forecasting, targeted control activities, and integrated prevention policies grounded in continuous evidence assessment can effectively address endemic dengue transmission in Jazan. This study provides key insights to optimize data-driven decision-making for dengue control in Saudi Arabia.
期刊介绍:
National Institute of Malaria Research on behalf of Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) publishes the Journal of Vector Borne Diseases. This Journal was earlier published as the Indian Journal of Malariology, a peer reviewed and open access biomedical journal in the field of vector borne diseases. The Journal publishes review articles, original research articles, short research communications, case reports of prime importance, letters to the editor in the field of vector borne diseases and their control.