Dynamic Demand Modeling Incorporating Renewable Energy Sources Using a Population-Based Optimization Method

Abstract

Due to the inclusion of distributed generation (DG) in microgrids (MGs), the accelerated growth in demand, and environmental concerns, suitable management and operational strategies are imperative. The utilization of wind and solar energy has rapidly increased in MGs. However, due to the uncertainties these systems present, accurately predicting energy generation remains challenging. This necessitates modeling the system’s random variables (such as renewable resource output and possibly load demand) using appropriate and feasible methods. The primary objective of this article is to determine the optimal setpoints for renewable energy sources (RES) and all elements involved in the MG, minimizing the total operation cost. The system comprises wind turbines (WT), photovoltaic panels (PV), energy storage systems (ESS), and electric vehicles (EVs). Weibull distribution and the Hottel and Liu Jordan equations are employed to determine the potential available capacity of wind and solar energy generation, respectively. ESS is utilized to enhance MG performance. For optimal management, a comprehensive mathematical model with practical constraints for each MG element is extracted. An efficient Population-Based Incremental Learning (PBIL) metaheuristic method is proposed to solve the optimization objective in an MG, demonstrating that this energy management system optimizes and effectively coordinates DG and ESS energy generation considering economic considerations. Finally, PBIL is compared with a commonly used model, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), across various scenarios, analyzing and evaluating their outcomes, showcasing a reduction in operation costs.