Climate change impacts on snow avalanche activity and related risks

Abstract

In the rapidly evolving mountain cryosphere, snow avalanches threaten livelihoods, settlements and infrastructure. In this Review, we analyse past and projected impacts of climate change on avalanche activity and the associated risks. The limited availability of comprehensive datasets, the potential confounding factors and the limitations of statistical approaches can make it difficult to identify trends in avalanche activity. However, available data indicate a general decrease in avalanche number, size, seasonality and active paths at low elevations, and an increase in the proportion of wet avalanches relative to dry avalanches. Increased snowfall at high elevations can lead to peaks in avalanche activity and an increase in the number of wet and slush-like avalanches. Activity patterns gradually shift from low to high elevations under continued warming. These changes affect avalanche risk; however, risk is also influenced by factors such as land use and the growth or decline of human settlements. The impact of these factors varies across diverse mountain environments, making it challenging to predict how risk will evolve under a changing climate. Therefore, future research should aim to couple an improved systemic understanding of the impacts of these factors with slope-scale projections of avalanche hazards and risks to support sustainable mountain development and adaptation strategies. Avalanche conditions and related risks are influenced by ongoing changes in temperature and precipitation. This Review synthesizes existing data, approaches and results to highlight dominant patterns of change and how they are linked to climate change and other socio-environmental factors.