Characterization of Seismicity and Seismic Hazard in the Coquimbo Region, Chile: A Probabilistic Study

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS
Valentina Ojeda, Pedro Vega-Jorquera, Erick de la Barra, Luis Palma-Chilla, Luis Vidal, José Saavedra, Alfredo Pizarro
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

In order to seismically characterize Chile’s northern Coquimbo Region, data from 2003 to 2020 were considered. The region was divided into 30 zones of \(0.5^\circ\) latitude and \(0.5^\circ\) longitude and non-extensive statistical physics was used. Both, the Sotolongo–Costa–Posadas (SCP) and Mathai models were deployed to analyze the magnitude-frequency distribution. A sub-division into cells of the catalog allowed to demonstrate that systems with value of \(q \sim 1\) present exponential behavior, while it was expected to obtain \(q > 1\), by superimposing sub-systems supporting the superstatistical model. Thus, by subdividing the Coquimbo region into south and north, we found that in both zones the entropic index is greater than 1, \(q>1\), However, in the southern zone the long-range effects are greater than in the north, according to the value obtained, which means both sectors are well described under a nonextensive statistical model, be it the SCP model or the Mathai one. The entropic index is \(q>1\) and in both cases \(R^2>0.99\). As the region is considered as a whole, the nonextensive statistical distribution is the more adequate one. With respect to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, Mathai’s model proved to have the better fit. Thus, the frequency-interevent time distribution was used for different limit magnitude values. Our analysis showed that the probability occurrence of a seismic event in the region’s north is lower than in the south considering the same period. In the north the behavior is of Poissonian type.

Abstract Image

智利科金博地区的地震特征和地震危害:概率研究
为了描述智利北部科金博地区的地震特征,研究人员考虑了 2003 年至 2020 年的数据。该地区被划分为 30 个纬度(0.5^/circ/)和经度(0.5^/circ/)的区域,并使用了非广延性统计物理学方法。采用 Sotolongo-Costa-Posadas 模型和 Mathai 模型来分析震级-频率分布。对目录中的单元进行细分,可以证明具有 \(q \sim 1\) 值的系统呈现指数行为,而通过叠加支持超统计模型的子系统,有望获得 \(q > 1\) 值。因此,通过将科金博地区细分为南部和北部,我们发现两个区域的熵指数都大于 1,即 \(q>1\),然而,根据得到的数值,南部区域的长程效应大于北部,这意味着在非广延性统计模型下,无论是 SCP 模型还是 Mathai 模型,都能很好地描述这两个区域。熵指数为(q>1\),在两种情况下均为(R^2>0.99\)。由于区域是作为一个整体来考虑的,因此非广延性统计分布是更适当的分布。在概率地震灾害评估方面,Mathai 的模型被证明具有更好的拟合效果。因此,对不同的极限震级值采用了频率-事件发生时间分布。我们的分析表明,在同一时期,该地区北部发生地震的概率低于南部。北部的行为属于泊松类型。
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来源期刊
pure and applied geophysics
pure and applied geophysics 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
5.00%
发文量
240
审稿时长
9.8 months
期刊介绍: pure and applied geophysics (pageoph), a continuation of the journal "Geofisica pura e applicata", publishes original scientific contributions in the fields of solid Earth, atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Regular and special issues feature thought-provoking reports on active areas of current research and state-of-the-art surveys. Long running journal, founded in 1939 as Geofisica pura e applicata Publishes peer-reviewed original scientific contributions and state-of-the-art surveys in solid earth and atmospheric sciences Features thought-provoking reports on active areas of current research and is a major source for publications on tsunami research Coverage extends to research topics in oceanic sciences See Instructions for Authors on the right hand side.
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