Climate-Driven Dynamics of Grain Production in Russia in XX–XXI Centuries: A Review of Statistical Models in Historical Studies

IF 1.4 Q3 AGRONOMY

Agricultural Research Pub Date : 2024-04-25 DOI:10.1007/s40003-024-00719-5

Nikolai Dronin, Andrey Kirilenko

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Multiple changes in centralized agricultural policies over the past 100 years have influenced crop production in Russia. The differential contributions of political and climatic factors in the performance of Russian agriculture have been widely examined in many historical and economic contexts. Besides traditional descriptive analysis statistical models proved their usefulness due to the quantitation of the role of both factors. We review the results of the statistical models of climate-driven dynamics of grain production in Russia in different historical periods. The modeling approach also proves its actuality today when Russia surprisingly emerges as a major net exporter of grain. Many experts attribute this success to a warmer climate, extending the growing season. Yet climate-yield modes are unable to fully explain this unprecedented yield increase with climate change alone. We propose that projecting climate change’s impact on yields under climate change in countries with transition economies needs to account more for the political factor in grain production.

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二十至二十一世纪俄罗斯粮食生产的气候驱动动态：历史研究中的统计模型综述

过去 100 年中，中央集权农业政策的多次变化对俄罗斯的作物生产产生了影响。在许多历史和经济背景下，政治和气候因素对俄罗斯农业绩效的不同贡献已被广泛研究。除了传统的描述性分析之外，统计模型也证明了其在量化这两个因素的作用方面的实用性。我们回顾了不同历史时期俄罗斯粮食生产受气候影响动态统计模型的结果。当俄罗斯出人意料地成为谷物主要净出口国时，这种建模方法也证明了它在今天的现实意义。许多专家将这一成功归功于气候变暖，延长了生长季节。然而，气候-产量模式无法仅用气候变化来完全解释这一史无前例的增产。我们建议，在预测气候变化对经济转型国家粮食产量的影响时，需要更多地考虑粮食生产中的政治因素。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Agricultural Research AGRONOMY-

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The main objective of this initiative is to promote agricultural research and development. The journal will publish high quality original research papers and critical reviews on emerging fields and concepts for providing future directions. The publications will include both applied and basic research covering the following disciplines of agricultural sciences: Genetic resources, genetics and breeding, biotechnology, physiology, biochemistry, management of biotic and abiotic stresses, and nutrition of field crops, horticultural crops, livestock and fishes; agricultural meteorology, environmental sciences, forestry and agro forestry, agronomy, soils and soil management, microbiology, water management, agricultural engineering and technology, agricultural policy, agricultural economics, food nutrition, agricultural statistics, and extension research; impact of climate change and the emerging technologies on agriculture, and the role of agricultural research and innovation for development.