Climate change impact assessments on the Andean genus Menonvillea (Brassicaceae) reveal uneven vulnerability among major phylogenetic and biogeographic groups

Abstract

Climate change impact on species can be heterogeneous depending on their environments, exposure, and intrinsic characteristics. Likewise, global warming may have an uneven effect on lineages, depending on whether phylogenetic conservatism or divergence of ecological niches predominates during clade diversification, imposing a higher risk to species groups from certain regions, habitats and lineages. This study evaluates the impact of future climate change on Menonvillea, a genus with 24 species distributed along the Andes and contiguous regions of the Southern Cone. The impact on the main phylogenetic, ecological and biogeographic groups is evaluated, also analyzing the effect on its richness and phylogenetic diversity. Results show a strongly negative impact on most species of the genus. However, the greatest pressure seems to be recovered for high Andean species, mainly from the southern portion of the Southern Andes (between 34°S–53S°), and mostly included in Menonvillea sect. Cuneata. Richness appears to be more impacted in high Andean regions, and the loss of phylogenetic diversity is greater than expected at random. These results highlight the strong negative impact that climate change can induce on lineages distributed in the Andean-Patagonian region, and that show patterns of phylogenetic niche conservatism.