How ChatGPT shapes the future labour market situation of software engineers: A Finnish Delphi study

Abstract

ChatGPT is changing our working lives, conjuring visions of revolutionary shifts ahead. ChatGPT is a chatbot based on generative artificial intelligence, which can, e.g., write computer code. This article explores how it might shape the future labour market situation of software engineers. A Delphi study with 14 experts was conducted in Finland. The first round identified possible futures, and the second round assessed their probabilities. Five scenarios prevailed: the unlikely scenario that the status quo persists; the ambivalent scenario that ChatGPT can replace software engineers to a large extent; the likely scenario that computer departments in startups embrace ChatGPT; the likely scenario that ChatGPT use proliferates among software engineers to increase productivity; and the highly likely scenario that ChatGPT makes computer programming accessible to the masses. Findings contradict previous discussions that technological advancements might take over especially routine tasks. ChatGPT can also take over non-routine tasks. Moreover, findings underline that digitalisation does not only bring about a choice between upskilling and employability loss, but also a democratisation of knowledge and expertise. Software engineers and companies might use the findings as an impetus for upskilling, while universities might feel nudged to incorporate ChatGPT more strongly into their curricula.