Evaluating climate change adaptation options in the agriculture sector: A PROMETHEE-GAIA analysis

Abstract

Mitigating maladaptation and effectively managing climate risks are crucial components of strategic planning in agriculture amidst climate change. Evaluation serves as a pivotal element in this process, facilitating the identification of effective adaptation strategies tailored to local contexts. Consequently, it's imperative to thoroughly evaluate these strategies to ensure their success and resilience. The current study evaluated adaptation methods tailored to the local context in southwest Iran across three categories-crop, farm, and water management-employing Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) and the PROMETHEE-GAIA. Sensitivity analysis was performed during the AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) stage to confirm the criteria weights and in the PROMETHEE to confirm the ranking. A set of eight criteria, including effectiveness/importance, affordability, institutional feasibility, technical feasibility, social feasibility, traditional acceptance, flexibility, and environment side effects (positive) were applied to evaluate the adaptation measures. Our results indicated the three highest rankings in each set of measures, as follows: i) crop management—relay intercropping, change of crop type, and mixed intercropping; ii) farm management—pest and disease management, weed control, and crop rotation; iii) water management—lining water canals or covering their earth floors with nylon, using pipes rather than open canals to transfer water to the field, and increasing the time intervals between irrigations to deal with water shortages. The outcomes underscore the urgency of formulating region-specific adaptation policies that align with local expertise and contextual needs. By prioritizing the identified effective strategies, policymakers can enhance resilience against water scarcity in southwest Iran. Moreover, the study highlights the importance of ongoing evaluation and adaptation, emphasizing the dynamic nature of climate challenges and the need for continuous refinement of adaptive policies.