Managing the oil market under misinformation: A reasonable quest?

IF 3.7 4区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Commodity Markets Pub Date : 2024-04-13 DOI:10.1016/j.jcomm.2024.100403

Hossa Almutairi , Axel Pierru , James L. Smith

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We examine the type and quality of information OPEC needs to successfully stabilize the oil market. Our analysis considers the impact of observational errors regarding market shocks as well as erroneous judgments of demand and supply elasticities. Actual prices resulting from OPEC's historical efforts to dampen volatility are compared to counterfactual prices that would have prevailed had OPEC remained passive. Despite the potentially confounding effect of misinformation, the elevated counterfactuals indicate that OPEC has managed to substantially decrease price volatility. Indeed, during the 2017–2021 OPEC+ period we estimate price volatility would have been up to 100% greater than actual without the actions of OPEC and its allies.

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在错误信息下管理石油市场：合理的追求？

我们研究了欧佩克成功稳定石油市场所需的信息类型和质量。我们的分析考虑了对市场冲击的观察误差以及对需求和供应弹性的错误判断的影响。我们将欧佩克历来为抑制波动所做的努力所导致的实际价格与如果欧佩克保持被动则会出现的反事实价格进行了比较。尽管错误信息可能会产生混淆效应，但升高的反事实价格表明欧佩克已成功大幅降低了价格波动性。事实上，在 2017-2021 年欧佩克+期间，如果没有欧佩克及其盟国的行动，我们估计价格波动会比实际价格高出 100%。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Commodity Markets Multiple-

CiteScore

5.70

自引率

2.40%

发文量

期刊介绍： The purpose of the journal is also to stimulate international dialog among academics, industry participants, traders, investors, and policymakers with mutual interests in commodity markets. The mandate for the journal is to present ongoing work within commodity economics and finance. Topics can be related to financialization of commodity markets; pricing, hedging, and risk analysis of commodity derivatives; risk premia in commodity markets; real option analysis for commodity project investment and production; portfolio allocation including commodities; forecasting in commodity markets; corporate finance for commodity-exposed corporations; econometric/statistical analysis of commodity markets; organization of commodity markets; regulation of commodity markets; local and global commodity trading; and commodity supply chains. Commodity markets in this context are energy markets (including renewables), metal markets, mineral markets, agricultural markets, livestock and fish markets, markets for weather derivatives, emission markets, shipping markets, water, and related markets. This interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary journal will cover all commodity markets and is thus relevant for a broad audience. Commodity markets are not only of academic interest but also highly relevant for many practitioners, including asset managers, industrial managers, investment bankers, risk managers, and also policymakers in governments, central banks, and supranational institutions.