{"title":"Extreme Capital Flow Episodes From the Global Financial Crisis to COVID-19: An Exploration With Monthly Data","authors":"Annamaria De Crescenzio, Etienne Lepers","doi":"10.1007/s11079-023-09745-2","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The COVID-19 pandemic triggered major disruptions in international capital flows, the latest of several extreme episodes since the global financial crisis (GFC). This paper presents a new monthly dataset of gross capital flows for 47 countries, available publicly and updated quarterly, that is better suited to the identification of sudden shocks than quarterly Balance of Payments data. Leveraging on this dataset, we revisit the occurrence and drivers of extreme episodes since the GFC, asking whether COVID-19 significantly changed recent findings of a weaker role of global factors. The answer is no. Rather, the exceptional spikes in global factors during the initial stages of COVID should have predicted many more sudden stops than experienced. Instead, pull factors such as pre-COVID vulnerabilities and pandemic-specific factors appear key in explaining the identified cross-country heterogeneity.</p>","PeriodicalId":46980,"journal":{"name":"Open Economies Review","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Open Economies Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-023-09745-2","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered major disruptions in international capital flows, the latest of several extreme episodes since the global financial crisis (GFC). This paper presents a new monthly dataset of gross capital flows for 47 countries, available publicly and updated quarterly, that is better suited to the identification of sudden shocks than quarterly Balance of Payments data. Leveraging on this dataset, we revisit the occurrence and drivers of extreme episodes since the GFC, asking whether COVID-19 significantly changed recent findings of a weaker role of global factors. The answer is no. Rather, the exceptional spikes in global factors during the initial stages of COVID should have predicted many more sudden stops than experienced. Instead, pull factors such as pre-COVID vulnerabilities and pandemic-specific factors appear key in explaining the identified cross-country heterogeneity.
期刊介绍：
The topics covered in Open Economies Review include, but are not limited to, models and applications of (1) trade flows, (2) commercial policy, (3) adjustment mechanism to external imbalances, (4) exchange rate movements, (5) alternative monetary regimes, (6) real and financial integration, (7) monetary union, (8) economic development and (9) external debt. Open Economies Review welcomes original manuscripts, both theoretical and empirical, dealing with international economic issues or national economic issues that have transnational relevance. Furthermore, Open Economies Review solicits contributions bearing on specific events on important branches of the literature. Open Economies Review is open to any and all contributions, without preferences for any particular viewpoint or school of thought. Open Economies Review encourages interdisciplinary communication and interaction among researchers in the vast area of international and transnational economics. Authors will be expected to meet the scientific standards prevailing in their respective fields, and empirical findings must be reproducible. Regardless of degree of complexity and specificity, authors are expected to write an introduction, setting forth the nature of their research and the significance of their findings, in a manner accessible to researchers in other disciplines. Officially cited as: Open Econ Rev
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
