Dynamic susceptibility assessment of debris flow hazard after a strong earthquake, Wenchuan County, Sichuan, China

Abstract

Large amounts of co-seismic landslides provide abundant debris sources following a strong earthquake and are prone to initiate and generate debris flow under heavy rainfall. Assessing the susceptibility they pose and what drives their movement in the years following the mainshock has not yet been attempted, primarily because multitemporal debris flow inventories are lacking. This study conducted statistical analyses using the multitemporal debris flow inventory (2008–2021) following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and a set of conditional factors (debris source, terrain, and hydrology). The dynamic susceptibility evaluation model was created using logistic regression. The temporal evolution of these factors affecting debris flow runout was explained. Our findings suggest that topography variables grew rapidly after the earthquake, while debris source factors dominated for seven years after the disaster before declining progressively to zero. These findings may have significant consequences for traditional susceptibility assessment models in regions where co-seismic landslides are the dominant debris flow source.