A novel nonparametric time-dependent precision–recall curve estimator for right-censored survival data

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Kassu Mehari Beyene, Ding-Geng Chen, Yehenew Getachew Kifle
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

In order to assess prognostic risk for individuals in precision health research, risk prediction models are increasingly used, in which statistical models are used to estimate the risk of future outcomes based on clinical and nonclinical characteristics. The predictive accuracy of a risk score must be assessed before it can be used in routine clinical decision making, where the receiver operator characteristic curves, precision–recall curves, and their corresponding area under the curves are commonly used metrics to evaluate the discriminatory ability of a continuous risk score. Among these the precision–recall curves have been shown to be more informative when dealing with unbalanced biomarker distribution between classes, which is common in rare event, even though except one, all existing methods are proposed for classic uncensored data. This paper is therefore to propose a novel nonparametric estimation approach for the time-dependent precision–recall curve and its associated area under the curve for right-censored data. A simulation is conducted to show the better finite sample property of the proposed estimator over the existing method and a real-world data from primary biliary cirrhosis trial is used to demonstrate the practical applicability of the proposed estimator.

Abstract Image

用于右删失生存数据的新型非参数时间相关精度-召回曲线估计器
在精准健康研究中,为了评估个体的预后风险,风险预测模型被越来越多地使用,其中统计模型被用来根据临床和非临床特征估计未来结果的风险。在将风险评分用于常规临床决策之前,必须对其预测准确性进行评估。接收者操作者特征曲线、精确度-召回曲线及其相应的曲线下面积是评估连续风险评分判别能力的常用指标。其中,精确度-召回曲线在处理类别间生物标记物分布不平衡(这在罕见事件中很常见)时被证明更有参考价值,尽管除一种方法外,现有的所有方法都是针对经典的无剪辑数据提出的。因此,本文提出了一种新的非参数估计方法,用于右删失数据的随时间变化的精确度-召回曲线及其相关的曲线下面积。本文进行了仿真,以显示与现有方法相比,本文提出的估计方法具有更好的有限样本特性,并使用原发性胆汁性肝硬化试验的实际数据来证明本文提出的估计方法的实际应用性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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