Examining Trajectories of Change on the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-Entry (DRAOR)

IF 1.3 4区 社会学 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY
Danielle J. Rieger, Bronwen Perley-Robertson, Ralph C. Serin
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Dynamic risk scales have largely been evaluated using singular assessment scores, including those obtained at the start of supervision. While this approach includes assessment of dynamic factors, it ignores changes with reassessment, failing to examine whether an instrument is truly dynamic in nature. This is problematic, as proximal risk assessments have consistently outperformed baseline assessments in the prediction of recidivism. In the current study, we examined the dynamic properties of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Reentry (DRAOR) in 4,736 adults on community supervision in Iowa, United States ( N = 33,965 assessments). As expected, while clients demonstrated statistically significant changes on the DRAOR domains over time, changes were small in magnitude. We also examined the predictive validity of baseline and proximal DRAOR total and domain scores on criminal recidivism and revocation in a larger sample of 11,421 adults in the same jurisdiction. While DRAOR baseline scores did predict both outcomes, prediction did not improve with proximal scores. This conflicted with expected findings from previous research on the DRAOR in New Zealand. The results of both of these research questions indicate there was an overall lack of change reflected in this sample. Potential issues regarding implementation fidelity are discussed. Additional research is needed to examine the dynamic properties of the DRAOR in Iowa given the importance of reassessment data in community corrections.
研究罪犯重返社会动态风险评估(DRAOR)的变化轨迹
对动态风险量表的评估大多采用单一的评估分数,包括监督开始时获得的分数。虽然这种方法包括了对动态因素的评估,但却忽略了重新评估后的变化,未能考察一种工具是否真正具有动态性质。这是有问题的,因为近端风险评估在预测累犯方面的表现一直优于基线评估。在本研究中,我们对美国爱荷华州 4,736 名接受社区监管的成年人(N = 33,965 次评估)进行了罪犯再犯罪动态风险评估(DRAOR)的动态特性研究。不出所料,虽然随着时间的推移,客户在 DRAOR 各领域上的变化在统计学上具有显著性,但变化幅度较小。我们还在同一辖区的 11,421 名成年人的更大样本中考察了 DRAOR 总分和领域分的基线和临近分数对刑事累犯和撤销的预测有效性。虽然 DRAOR 基线分数确实可以预测这两种结果,但预测效果并没有随着近似分数的提高而提高。这与新西兰之前对 DRAOR 的预期研究结果相冲突。这两个研究问题的结果表明,该样本总体上缺乏变化。我们还讨论了有关实施忠诚度的潜在问题。鉴于重新评估数据在社区矫正中的重要性,还需要进行更多的研究来考察 DRAOR 在爱荷华州的动态特性。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
6.70%
发文量
164
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Press/Politics is an interdisciplinary journal for the analysis and discussion of the role of the press and politics in a globalized world. The Journal is interested in theoretical and empirical research on the linkages between the news media and political processes and actors. Special attention is given to the following subjects: the press and political institutions (e.g. the state, government, political parties, social movements, unions, interest groups, business), the politics of media coverage of social and cultural issues (e.g. race, language, health, environment, gender, nationhood, migration, labor), the dynamics and effects of political communication.
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