Scoring probability model based on service landing location and ranking points in men’s professional tennis matches

IF 1.5 4区教育学 Q3 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM

International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI:10.1177/17479541241246184

Fumiya Shimizu, Eiji Konaka

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Service is regarded as the most crucial shot in tennis matches, and hence affects the outcome. This study aims to construct a mathematical model that expresses the scoring probability of service shots. Here, “scoring” means that the server wins points in subsequent rallies after a service. The explanatory variables are the service landing location and the ranking points of the players (logarithms of ranking points for the two players). The model construction method is a stepwise regression of the generalized linear model. The model is constructed using more than 110,000 service shots from Association of Tennis Professionals Tour tournaments of 2019. The model comprises four service situations: first/second and ad/deuce sides. The developed model reveals the following facts: in the first service, advantageous locations for the servers are not symmetric between the advantage and deuce sides. Higher-ranked players can win more points than lower-ranked players even if their shots land in easy locations, that is, in the middle of the service court.

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基于男子职业网球比赛中发球落点和排名积分的得分概率模型

发球被认为是网球比赛中最关键的一击，因此会影响比赛结果。本研究旨在构建一个数学模型，表达发球得分概率。在这里，"得分 "指的是发球员在发球后的后续回合中赢得分数。解释变量为发球落点和选手的排名积分（两名选手排名积分的对数）。模型构建方法是广义线性模型的逐步回归法。模型的构建使用了 2019 年网球职业者协会巡回赛中超过 110,000 次的发球。模型包括四种发球情况：一发/二发和正手/反手。所建立的模型揭示了以下事实：在第一发球局中，发球员的有利位置在优势方和劣势方之间并不对称。即使发球员的击球落点很容易，即在发球区的中间，排名较高的选手也能比排名较低的选手赢得更多的分数。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching Multiple-

CiteScore

3.50

自引率

15.80%

发文量

208

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching is a peer-reviewed, international, academic/professional journal, which aims to bridge the gap between coaching and sports science. The journal will integrate theory and practice in sports science, promote critical reflection of coaching practice, and evaluate commonly accepted beliefs about coaching effectiveness and performance enhancement. Open learning systems will be promoted in which: (a) sports science is made accessible to coaches, translating knowledge into working practice; and (b) the challenges faced by coaches are communicated to sports scientists. The vision of the journal is to support the development of a community in which: (i) sports scientists and coaches respect and learn from each other as they assist athletes to acquire skills by training safely and effectively, thereby enhancing their performance, maximizing their enjoyment of the sporting experience and facilitating character development; and (ii) scientific research is embraced in the quest to uncover, understand and develop the processes involved in sports coaching and elite performance.