{"title":"Gravity Models for Global Migration Flows: A Predictive Evaluation","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09867-6","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>This study introduces a comprehensive econometric framework based on gravity equations and designed to forecast migrant flows between countries. The model’s theoretical underpinnings are validated through empirical data, and we show that the model has better out-of-sample predictive ability than alternative global models. We explore the quantitative effects of various socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic factors on migration and illustrate its use to obtain scenario-driven projections of bilateral migration, assessing the potential contributions of migration to population and GDP dynamics in Germany and Portugal for the period 2021–2025. Our projection results highlight the critical role of immigration in sustaining population levels and economic growth, particularly in the context of ageing populations and decreasing fertility rates across Europe.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Population Research and Policy Review","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-024-09867-6","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"DEMOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study introduces a comprehensive econometric framework based on gravity equations and designed to forecast migrant flows between countries. The model’s theoretical underpinnings are validated through empirical data, and we show that the model has better out-of-sample predictive ability than alternative global models. We explore the quantitative effects of various socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic factors on migration and illustrate its use to obtain scenario-driven projections of bilateral migration, assessing the potential contributions of migration to population and GDP dynamics in Germany and Portugal for the period 2021–2025. Our projection results highlight the critical role of immigration in sustaining population levels and economic growth, particularly in the context of ageing populations and decreasing fertility rates across Europe.
期刊介绍：
Now accepted in JSTOR! Population Research and Policy Review has a twofold goal: it provides a convenient source for government officials and scholars in which they can learn about the policy implications of recent research relevant to the causes and consequences of changing population size and composition; and it provides a broad, interdisciplinary coverage of population research.
Population Research and Policy Review seeks to publish quality material of interest to professionals working in the fields of population, and those fields which intersect and overlap with population studies. The publication includes demographic, economic, social, political and health research papers and related contributions which are based on either the direct scientific evaluation of particular policies or programs, or general contributions intended to advance knowledge that informs policy and program development.
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