Probabilistic risk assessment for reinforced concrete frame structures subject to mainshock-aftershock sequences

Abstract

Recent earthquakes have highlighted that aftershocks can considerably increase the structural demand and seismic risk of engineering structures. This study presents a probabilistic approach to assess the seismic risk of reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures subjected to mainshock-aftershock sequences. In this approach, a predictive fragility method is used to evaluate the probabilities of structural damage under sequential excitations. The Bayes theorem is employed to generate posterior distributions of unknown model parameters. Then, a practical seismic hazard assessment method is used to conduct mainshock-aftershock hazard analysis. The Copula technique is employed to develop a joint distribution model of the mainshock and aftershock intensity measures. Finally, the seismic risk is evaluated using the classical risk integration equation with the mainshock-aftershock fragilities and hazard surfaces. Confidence bounds for fragilities and seismic risks are also obtained to account for the uncertainties of model parameters caused by aftershocks. The proposed approach is demonstrated by considering a seismic-designed RC frame building. It can be concluded that aftershocks can significantly increase the seismic risk throughout the entire structural service life. The additional uncertainties caused by aftershocks result in wider confidence bounds for seismic risk.