Demand and distribution in a dynamic spatial panel model for the United States: Evidence from state-level data

Abstract

We estimate a modified demand-and-distribution system for the 48 contiguous US states and the District of Columbia (DC) employing dynamic spatial panel data for 1980–2019. We allow for endogenous regressors, test for the presence, significance, and magnitude of spatial spillovers, and estimate immediate and cumulative effects on our endogenous variables of interest. Without testing for spatial dependence and spillovers, we estimate that output growth and capacity utilization in the sample US states and DC rise in response to an increase in their own wage share. When we test for spatial dependence and spillovers as required by the state-level nature of the data, and consider that the functional distribution of income and the level of economic activity are jointly determined, we estimate that a higher state wage share raises output growth in the own state and the neighboring states. Yet the effect of a change in the state wage share on capacity utilization in the own state and the neighboring states is not statistically significant. Meanwhile, a higher state output growth raises the wage share in the own state, but its impact on the wage share in the neighboring states is not statistically significant. A higher state capacity utilization raises the wage share in the own state, yet it reduces the wage share in the neighboring states.