How do you happen to feel? The effect of certainty–uncertainty appraisals of incidental emotions on consumer affective forecasting error

Abstract

Consumers frequently forecast how their choices will make them feel in future consumption situations. One possible influence during such affective forecasting is their current emotional state. Although the impact of incidental emotions on consumer decision making is well established, limited research has examined the impact of incidental emotions on affective forecasting. The purpose of the present research is to contribute to the understanding of the effects of certainty–uncertainty, as a key appraisal dimension of incidental emotions, on the process and outcome of affective forecasting. The results of four experimental studies demonstrate that experiencing uncertainty associated incidental emotions, such as fear and hope, during affective forecasting, leads to smaller forecasting error compared with experiencing certainty emotions, such as anger and happiness. Furthermore, heuristic processing, as a result of the certainty versus uncertainty appraisals, plays a mediating role in the effect of certainty–uncertainty on forecasting error. The findings of the present research extend the effects of the certainty–uncertainty appraisals in the context of consumer affective forecasting and elucidate the impact of incidental emotions on decision making.