Cross-border troubles? Interstate river conflicts and intrastate violence

Abstract

I examine the relationship between interstate river conflicts and intrastate violence such as riots, demonstrations, and civil wars in multiple regions from 1900 to 2001. I argue that interstate disagreements over cross-border river basins create instabilities in water resources, which can increase the risks for intrastate conflict by creating unequal access to water resources across ethnic groups, displacing populations, and reducing water supplies for downstream states. I find that countries that experience more frequent and salient interstate conflicts over shared river basins face significantly higher risks for multiple forms of intrastate conflict, especially if the interstate conflicts involve water quantity rights in river basins. Consistent with the pathways described in the theory, water conflicts between countries increase intrastate conflict risks more for downstream than upstream states, for countries with ethnic dominance, and for countries experiencing large numbers of refugees and internally displaced people. These results help us understand cases like the Syrian civil war where water conflicts in the Tigris-Euphrates basin combined with drought and forced migration fueled grievances against the government.