A study on The Shelf-life of Cartridge, 81MM High-Explosive for Mortar Using Regression Analysis

Abstract

If ammunition is stored for a long time, it may not fire or explode normally due to corrosion of parts or natural decomposition of chemicals or it may threaten the safety of users due to premature explosion. To prevent this, it is important to determine whether to dispose of ammunition or continue to use it by judging its shelf-life. This is also effective in increasing combat power in wartime and reducing the defense budget. The ASRP (Ammunition Stockpile Reliability Program) conducts periodic tests on stored military ammunition and analyzes and evaluates the serviceability, safety, reliability, and performance of ammunition. Its task is to determine the storage extension or disposal of ammunition according to the evaluation results. In this study, the test results of the ASRP were used for regression analysis to confirm the trend of deterioration of the function of ammunition and estimate the shelf-life. An analysis was conducted on one item, 81MM mortar cartridges, and the performance of the fuze and propellant was analyzed. The fuze and propellant are important components that determine the function of mortar cartridges. As a result of the analysis, the shelf-life of an M004 fuze is about 28 years, and a KM006 fuze's shelf-life is about 74 years. The shelf-life based on the muzzle velocity is about 89 years for M00 propellant and about 170 years for KM00 propellant. The shelf-life based on the stabilizer is about 128 years for M00 propellant and about 75 years for KM00 propellant. It is expected that the results of the study could be applied to other mortar items and it could be used to improve quality or policies for ammunition.