A Study on North Korea-Russia Relations driven by domestic and foreign policy changes: Focusing on Kim's 1st and 2nd visits to Russia

Deog Sung Jung, Yong Hyun Kim
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Abstract

State relations accelerate the close cooperation and promotion when national interests coincide. The signing of the North Korea-Russia alliance treaty and Kim's first and second visits to Russia served as a driving force when domestic and foreign policy changes interact with national interests. If the China-Soviet conflict and the strengthening of the South Korea-U.S.-Japan alliance led to the 1961 North Korea-Soviet Alliance Treaty, changes in the environment of the international order, including the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the ROK’s northern policy and Putin's equidistant foreign policy, led to the signing of the 2002 North Korea-Russia Friendship Treaty. A comparative analysis of Kim's first and second visits to Russia enabled the derivation of facilitating factors that accelerated the close relationship between North Korea and Russia and challenging factors. This shows that under the international order dominated by power, close contact is accelerated when national interests, such as domestic and foreign environmental factors of North Korea and Russia, namely, domestic political system (leadership), diversification of economy and diplomacy, and securing resources. It is time for strategic thinking that can bring maximum effect with minimal effort through stable situation management of the impact of the US-China-Russia mutual state relations variable. Amid expectations of changes in domestic and foreign exchange environments, it is necessary to closely analyze the impact of North Korea-Russia relations on security in Northeast Asia and devise countermeasures while strengthening the South Korea-U.S.-Japan alliance.
由内外政策变化驱动的朝鲜-俄罗斯关系研究:聚焦金正日对俄罗斯的第一次和第二次访问
当国家利益相吻合时,国家关系就会加速密切合作和促进。朝俄同盟条约的签署以及金正恩对俄罗斯的首次和第二次访问,都是内外政策变化与国家利益相互作用的推动力。如果说中苏冲突和韩美日同盟的加强促成了 1961 年《朝苏同盟条约》的签订,那么 1991 年苏联解体、韩国的北方政策和普京的等距外交政策等国际秩序环境的变化则促成了 2002 年《朝俄友好条约》的签订。通过对金正日第一次和第二次访问俄罗斯的比较分析,可以得出加速朝鲜与俄罗斯密切关系的促进因素和挑战因素。这表明,在强权主导的国际秩序下,朝鲜和俄罗斯的国内外环境因素,即国内政治体制(领导层)、经济和外交的多元化、资源保障等国家利益,会加速密切接触。通过对中美俄相互国家关系变量的影响进行稳定的局势管理,以最小的努力带来最大的效果,现在是进行战略思考的时候了。在期待国内外环境变化的同时,有必要密切分析朝俄关系对东北亚安全的影响,在强化韩美日同盟的同时制定对策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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