Beyond the basics: A deep dive into parameter estimation for advanced PBPK and QSP models

Abstract

Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models and quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) models have contributed to drug development strategies. The parameters of these models are commonly estimated by capturing observed values using the nonlinear least-squares method. Software packages for PBPK and QSP modeling provide a range of parameter estimation algorithms. To choose the most appropriate method, modelers need to understand the basic concept of each approach. This review provides a general introduction to the key points of parameter estimation with a focus on the PBPK and QSP models, and the respective parameter estimation algorithms. The latter part assesses the performance of five parameter estimation algorithms – the quasi-Newton method, Nelder-Mead method, genetic algorithm, particle swarm optimization, and Cluster Gauss-Newton method – using three examples of PBPK and QSP modeling. The assessment revealed that some parameter estimation results were significantly influenced by the initial values. Moreover, the choice of algorithms demonstrating good estimation results heavily depends on factors such as model structure and the parameters to be estimated. To obtain credible parameter estimation results, it is advisable to conduct multiple rounds of parameter estimation under different conditions, employing various estimation algorithms.