Natural streamflow reconstruction and quantification of hydrological drought in the Soan River basin, Pakistan

IF 2.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL
Muhammad Laraib, Mudassar Iqbal, Muhammad Waseem, Abu Bakar Arshed, Umar Sultan, Hayat Ullah Khan, Awais Rahman, Khawar Abbas, Muhammad Ayub Shah, Samra Javaid, Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq
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Abstract

Climate change and rapid socioeconomic development have exacerbated the damage caused by hydrological droughts. To ensure effective drought defense and infrastructure development, it is essential to investigate variations in hydrological droughts. The primary objective of this study is to reconstruct the natural streamflow by using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological modeling. The hydrological drought at different time scales (1, 3, 6, and 12 months) were measured using the streamflow drought index (SDI). The statistical parameters, including Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency and the Coefficient of Determination, which yielded values of 0.84 and 0.82 during the calibration period and 0.78 and 0.76 during the validation period, respectively, showed a satisfactory SWAT model performance. Additionally, the Pettit test was used to identify a change point in streamflow within the 1991–2015 timeframe, leading to the division of the study period into two distinct phases: an undisturbed period (1991–1998) and a disturbed period (1999–2015). The SDI index-based analysis revealed 9.39% moderate drought and 3.13% severe drought during the undisturbed period, while 11.76% moderate drought and 7.35% severe drought may happen due to the human influences that occurred in the disturbed period. These findings enhance the understanding of the hydrological drought variations in the Soan River basin for optimizing the water resources management system and effectively preventing and mitigating drought-related damages.

Abstract Image

巴基斯坦索安河流域的自然河流重建和水文干旱量化
气候变化和社会经济的快速发展加剧了水文干旱造成的破坏。为确保有效防御干旱和发展基础设施,研究水文干旱的变化至关重要。本研究的主要目的是利用水土评估工具(SWAT)水文模型重建自然溪流。使用溪流干旱指数 (SDI) 测量了不同时间尺度(1、3、6 和 12 个月)的水文干旱。统计参数,包括纳什-苏克里夫效率和判定系数,在校准期间的值分别为 0.84 和 0.82,在验证期间的值分别为 0.78 和 0.76,表明 SWAT 模型的性能令人满意。此外,还利用 Pettit 检验确定了 1991-2015 年时间范围内的流量变化点,从而将研究时段划分为两个不同的阶段:未扰动期(1991-1998 年)和扰动期(1999-2015 年)。基于 SDI 指数的分析表明,在未扰动期,9.39% 的中度干旱和 3.13% 的严重干旱可能发生在扰动期,而 11.76% 的中度干旱和 7.35% 的严重干旱可能发生在扰动期。这些发现加深了对索安河流域水文干旱变化的理解,有助于优化水资源管理系统,有效预防和减轻干旱造成的损失。
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来源期刊
Journal of The American Water Resources Association
Journal of The American Water Resources Association 环境科学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
12.50%
发文量
100
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: JAWRA seeks to be the preeminent scholarly publication on multidisciplinary water resources issues. JAWRA papers present ideas derived from multiple disciplines woven together to give insight into a critical water issue, or are based primarily upon a single discipline with important applications to other disciplines. Papers often cover the topics of recent AWRA conferences such as riparian ecology, geographic information systems, adaptive management, and water policy. JAWRA authors present work within their disciplinary fields to a broader audience. Our Associate Editors and reviewers reflect this diversity to ensure a knowledgeable and fair review of a broad range of topics. We particularly encourage submissions of papers which impart a ''take home message'' our readers can use.
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