A Klotho-based Machine Learning Model for Prediction of both Kidney and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease

Abstract

Background: This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model based on serum Klotho for predicting end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Methods: Five different ML models were trained to predict the risk of ESKD and CVD at three different time points (3, 5, and 8-year) using a cohort of 400 non-dialysis CKD patients. The dataset was divided into a training set (70%) and an internal validation set (30%). These models were informed by data comprising 47 clinical features, including serum Klotho. The best-performing model was selected and used to identify risk factors for each outcome. Model performance was assessed using various metrics. Results: The findings showed that the Lasso regression model had the highest accuracy (C-index=0.71) in predicting ESKD. The features mainly included in this model were estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), 24-hour urinary microalbumin, serum albumin, phosphate, parathyroid hormone, and serum Klotho, which achieved the highest area under the curve (AUC) of 0.930 (95% CI: 0.897-0.962). In addition, for the CVD risk prediction, the Random Survival Forest (RSF) model with the highest accuracy (C-index=0.66) was selected and achieved the highest AUC of 0.782 (95% CI: 0.633-0.930). The features mainly included in this model were age, history of primary hypertension, calcium, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and serum Klotho. Conclusion: We successfully developed and validated Klotho-based ML risk prediction models for CVD and ESKD in CKD patients with good performance, indicating their high clinical utility.