Determinants of illicit capital movement in China-Africa trade: Evidence of trade misinvoicing

Abstract

Illicit financial flows have been an issue of great concern over the past decades due to the challenge they present for economic development in Africa. Illicit financial flows undermine the productivity and growth of African economies as countries lose foreign exchange and tax revenues. Countries lose financial resources needed for development programs, hence undermining social service delivery and retarding poverty reduction. To effectively combat illicit financial flows, it is imperative to examine their determinants. This study seeks to examine the determinants of illicit capital movement in the China-Africa trade through the mechanisms of trade misinvoicing over the period 1990–2019. The IMF's Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) database is used to estimate trade misinvoicing. Estimates using mirror trade data indicate that both exports of Africa to China and imports from China to Africa are mainly underinvoiced. The net effect shows that trade misinvoicing in the China-Africa trade results in net illicit capital outflow for about 44% of countries in Africa. The results from panel data regressions indicate that tax evasion is one of the major factors behind misinvoicing in China-Africa trade. In addition, corruption control is found to reduce export underinvoicing, while political stability reduces both export overinvoicing and import overinvoicing. Export misinvoicing increases with the presence of natural resources in the exporting country. Other factors associated with trade misinvoicing in China-Africa trade include openness to trade, current account deficit, and real exchange rate. The study suggests ways to reduce trade misinvoicing in China-Africa trade.