Planning for wastewater infrastructure adaptation under deep uncertainty

Abstract

Infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas faces challenges from climate change, sea level rise, and the impact of compound hazards. Dynamic adaptive pathways planning (DAPP) is increasingly being applied as a way of planning under deep uncertainty. Stress testing for robustness is an integral part of DAPP which provides decision-makers with confidence. We outline a seven-step approach—combining scoping workshops, systems mapping, DAPP, exploratory modelling, robust decision-making, real options analysis and validation workshops—to support decision-making for infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas. We apply the seven steps to two wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) case studies in New Zealand to quantify indicators, signals, triggers and adaptation thresholds within DAPP plans and to identify adaptation pathways that are robust against future uncertainty. Case study one focuses on the implementation of an existing DAPP at Helensville WWTP. Our modelling enabled the challenge of quantifying indicators for adaptation thresholds and triggers to be overcome. We show that an adaptation threshold occurs at 31 cm of RSLR, the trigger point is sufficient lead time to enable relocation, and the indicator is the rate of observed RSLR. Case study one demonstrates in a quantitative way how an existing DAPP can be functionally implemented by a water management agency. Modelling for case study two, the Seaview WWTP, showed that 26 cm and 56 cm of RSLR are key thresholds. Nuisance flooding may occur after 26 cm of RSLR, which could happen as early as 2040 under a high emissions scenario. Inundation of plant assets may occur after 56 cm of RSLR, which could occur as early as 2060. Modelling showed that implementing changes to plant layout would allow the plant to remain on site for its design life (until 2080). Five adaptation archetypes were developed—sequences of adaptive actions that achieve the performance objective of continuing levels of service and avoid inundation of WWTPs. The seven-step approach is a way to stress-test a DAPP, to quantify signals, triggers and adaptation thresholds and to simulate implementation of a DAPP under a range of scenarios. This can facilitate more robust decision-making for wastewater infrastructure assets under future uncertainty.