Evaluation of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balance of the Mixteco River Basin with the SWAT Model

IF 3.1 Q2 WATER RESOURCES

Hydrology Pub Date : 2024-03-28 DOI:10.3390/hydrology11040045

Gerardo Colín-García, Enrique Palacios-Vélez, Adolfo López-Pérez, M. Bolaños-González, Héctor Flores-Magdaleno, R. Ascencio-Hernández, Enrique I. Canales-Islas

{"title":"Evaluation of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balance of the Mixteco River Basin with the SWAT Model","authors":"Gerardo Colín-García, Enrique Palacios-Vélez, Adolfo López-Pérez, M. Bolaños-González, Héctor Flores-Magdaleno, R. Ascencio-Hernández, Enrique I. Canales-Islas","doi":"10.3390/hydrology11040045","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Assessing the impact of climate change is essential for developing water resource management plans, especially in areas facing severe issues regarding ecosystem service degradation. This study assessed the effects of climate change on the hydrological balance using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model in the Mixteco River Basin (MRB), Oaxaca, Mexico. Temperature and precipitation were predicted with the projections of global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6); the bias was corrected using CMhyd software, and then the best performing GCM was selected for use in the SWAT model. According to the GCM MPI-ESM1-2-LR, precipitation might decrease by between 83.71 mm and 225.83 mm, while temperature might increase by between 2.57 °C and 4.77 °C, causing a greater atmospheric evaporation demand that might modify the hydrological balance of the MRB. Water yield might decrease by 47.40% and 61.01% under the climate scenarios SP245 and SSP585, respectively. Therefore, adaptation and mitigation measures are needed to offset the adverse impact of climate change in the MRB.","PeriodicalId":37372,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Hydrology","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11040045","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"WATER RESOURCES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Assessing the impact of climate change is essential for developing water resource management plans, especially in areas facing severe issues regarding ecosystem service degradation. This study assessed the effects of climate change on the hydrological balance using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model in the Mixteco River Basin (MRB), Oaxaca, Mexico. Temperature and precipitation were predicted with the projections of global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6); the bias was corrected using CMhyd software, and then the best performing GCM was selected for use in the SWAT model. According to the GCM MPI-ESM1-2-LR, precipitation might decrease by between 83.71 mm and 225.83 mm, while temperature might increase by between 2.57 °C and 4.77 °C, causing a greater atmospheric evaporation demand that might modify the hydrological balance of the MRB. Water yield might decrease by 47.40% and 61.01% under the climate scenarios SP245 and SSP585, respectively. Therefore, adaptation and mitigation measures are needed to offset the adverse impact of climate change in the MRB.

查看原文本刊更多论文

利用 SWAT 模型评估气候变化对米克斯特科河流域水量平衡的影响

评估气候变化的影响对于制定水资源管理计划至关重要，尤其是在面临生态系统服务退化等严重问题的地区。本研究利用 SWAT（水土评估工具）水文模型评估了气候变化对墨西哥瓦哈卡州米斯特科河流域（MRB）水文平衡的影响。温度和降水量是通过耦合模式相互比较项目第六阶段（CMIP6）的全球气候模式（GCM）预测得出的；使用 CMhyd 软件对偏差进行了校正，然后选择性能最佳的全球气候模式用于 SWAT 模型。根据 GCM MPI-ESM1-2-LR，降水量可能会减少 83.71 毫米至 225.83 毫米，而温度可能会升高 2.57 °C 至 4.77 °C，从而导致大气蒸发需求增加，可能会改变 MRB 的水文平衡。在 SP245 和 SSP585 气候情景下，产水量可能分别减少 47.40% 和 61.01%。因此，需要采取适应和减缓措施，以抵消气候变化对大溪地带的不利影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Hydrology Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth-Surface Processes

CiteScore

4.90

自引率

21.90%

发文量

192

审稿时长

6 weeks

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology publishes original research papers and comprehensive reviews in all the subfields of the hydrological sciences, including water based management and policy issues that impact on economics and society. These comprise, but are not limited to the physical, chemical, biogeochemical, stochastic and systems aspects of surface and groundwater hydrology, hydrometeorology, hydrogeology and hydrogeophysics. Relevant topics incorporating the insights and methodologies of disciplines such as climatology, water resource systems, ecohydrology, geomorphology, soil science, instrumentation and remote sensing, data and information sciences, civil and environmental engineering are within scope. Social science perspectives on hydrological problems such as resource and ecological economics, sociology, psychology and behavioural science, management and policy analysis are also invited. Multi-and interdisciplinary analyses of hydrological problems are within scope. The science published in the Journal of Hydrology is relevant to catchment scales rather than exclusively to a local scale or site. Studies focused on urban hydrological issues are included.