Dissecting Dissent in Russia

Abstract

Numerous studies into nonviolent resistance have led to a broad but scattered understanding of why some of these movements erupt and succeed, while others do not. This article offers a multilevel framework of analysis to explain trajectories of nonviolent resistance in repressive regimes and illustrates this framework by analysing the potential of Russian domestic nonviolent resistance to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The proposed framework incorporates seven overarching factors identified in previous studies, namely the political and economic system, the international relations, the level of modernization, the distribution of power within society, and the grievances, resources and organizational capacity of the resistance group. Based on this framework, it is tentatively concluded that Russia’s political and economic system, the limited power dispersion and the lack of organization among the opposition help to explain why no successful resistance has emerged. Additional case studies are required to further assess the framework’s utility.