Trends Analysis of Mean Temperature in Iraq

Abstract

In this study, the trend of air temperatures is investigated by employing measured and predictive data of maximum and minimum temperatures for daily and annual means in three synoptic stations, geographically and climatically distributed in different regions, as follows: (Mosul, Baghdad and Basra), for time series (1982-2020) of measured means up to (2021-2050) for predictive data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Mann-Kendall analysis, which is a statistical test widely used in climate series to determine the statistical significance of the monotonic trend of temperature means, showed that maximum, daily, and annual temperature means had a positive trend and were statistically significant at the significance level (  = 0.05) and a non-significant fluctuating trend in minimum daily and annual. A high increase in the annual differences with a range of (-1.47-7.25 ℃ ) between the beginning and end of the measured daily time series (1982–2020) that showed a high increase in Basra, followed by the Mosul station, with an increase of the range (5.37-1.24 ℃ ), and finally for the Baghdad station, the increase was recorded within the range (1.24-5.37 ℃ ). Overall, under the potential of global warming, the results concluded that trends of mean temperatures appeared to be in the best agreement with the extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5) compared to the scenario (SSP2-4.5) till the middle of the present century. Globally, the region topped the regions of extreme temperature risks under the governmental authorities' entire deficit to set optimal solutions for climate change and extreme events in Iraq.